A Keystone Review: Ten years in, Guyana redraws the blueprint for emerging oil producers

TEN years ago, few would have predicted that Guyana, a country of less than a million people with practically no petroleum experience, would emerge as the face of a new energy future.
Yet, in the decade since ExxonMobil’s game-changing Liza discovery, Guyana has done more than strike oil. Guyana has redrawn the blueprint for what it means to be a modern, responsible oil producer.
The 2015 Liza oil discovery came at a time when oil prices were low and market sentiment was uncertain, yet the significant find rewrote the playbook for frontier energy development. From the first discovery to first oil in just four years, the country set an industry benchmark for safety, speed and efficiency.

What followed Liza was a cascade of over 40 commercial discoveries, propelling Guyana into the Top 20 countries oil reserves globally, which are now estimated at 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
This is not a case of luck meeting unprepared hands. Guyana’s rise has been swift, yes, but it has also been deliberate. Guyana’s policy and governance framework has moved rapidly to keep pace with our energy boom and position us as a dependable supplier to global markets, whilst maintaining our standing as a responsible steward of the environment.

But the real significance of Guyana’s blueprint lies beyond the numbers. It lies in the model of balanced development we are carving out for ourselves, and for other countries which may follow.
In a world where emerging producers are often plagued by mismanagement, Guyana has shown a rare ability to build institutions in tandem with production, all amidst the challenges of rapid national development.

The Natural Resource Fund, Local Content Act, and recent Oil Spill Bill signal a clear intent: oil wealth must translate into broader national development and environmental protection. Over US$1 billion has already flowed to local businesses, while nearly US$4 billion in oil revenues has been taken out for transformational investments in roads, schools, hospitals, and ports.

Guyana also completed its first offshore licensing round, now underpinned by a new petroleum law, the Petroleum Activities Act, and a new Production Sharing Agreement.
The provisions of the law and the terms of the Agreement reflect Guyana’s transformation from high-risk frontier basin to a highly sought after energy destination, maintaining an internationally competitive investment structure.

At the same time, Guyana is emerging as a green energy anomaly, an oil producing nation that remains a climate champion.
With 85% forest cover intact and a landmark US$750 million carbon credit deal with Hess, Guyana proves that oil development and climate leadership do not have to be mutually exclusive.

The emissions regulations, flaring limits, and continued push for enhanced operator responsibility reinforce our commitment to sustainability, not as an afterthought, but as a parallel pillar of our oil economy and representative of the Low Carbon Development Strategy.

Guyana’s growing role in the global energy market is already being felt. In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Guyana became one of the few emerging producers helping to fill critical supply gaps.
This ascent has added much-needed resilience to an increasingly volatile global oil landscape. Still, the journey is far from over and the road ahead is more complex.
While challenges persist, they also present opportunities for Guyana to refine its development strategy. High electricity costs, administrative bottlenecks, financing constraints for small businesses, and a shortage of skilled labour are notable areas that continue to demand attention.

To address the electricity challenge, Guyana is banking on the transformative potential of its Gas-to-Energy project at Wales. Scheduled to come online by 2026, the project will harness natural gas from the Liza field to deliver cleaner, more affordable, and reliable power to households, businesses and industries.

It is expected to significantly lower generation costs, reduce blackouts, and unlock growth in sectors such as manufacturing, agro-processing, construction and logistics; overall, lifting a new wave of local enterprise. The project also includes infrastructure for natural gas liquids, produced as by-products, creating further downstream opportunities.

Administrative reforms include the Planning and Development Single Window Act and its ongoing implementation, a comprehensive process intended to crunch repetitive registration and permitting processes into a single channel, improving efficiency for business start-up.

Access to finance is another major constraint. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SME’s) face difficulties raising capital, and the length of time for payments from prime contractors inhibit their cash flow.
With government’s intervention, the payment timeline was reduced from 90 days to 45 days but this, according to President Irfaan Ali, is still too long. A further reduction and a suitable implementation mechanism are being contemplated.

As Guyana’s oil production expands, heightened socio-economic evaluation and environmental scrutiny are expected. This makes clear, consistent oversight of all petroleum activities not only timely but essential to maintaining public trust, managing public expectations and attracting long- term investment.

The stakes are rising. The outcome of Arbitration tied to Chevron’s proposed acquisition of Hess could create new joint venture dynamics in the prized Stabroek Block whilst the proposed acquisition in itself signals Guyana’s investment standing. Meanwhile, an ICJ ruling on the Venezuela border controversy could come in 2026, potentially unlocking new exploration areas.
In the face of these victories and challenges, the high stakes and global rise, Guyana must not lose sight of what has brought us this far: sound policy, smart partnerships, and a firm grip on the balance between growth and environmental responsibility.

What we build next – better business systems, deeper training pipelines, and stronger institutions targeting multi-sector development – will greatly determine whether this ‘oil boom’ becomes a sustainable national transformation or just another cautionary tale.

Guyana’s greatest advantage is that it is not trapped by the old ways of doing things. We are crafting a model that suits our unique position as a small, green country sitting on one of the world’s most valuable energy basins.
If we stay the course, Guyana will not just be known as an oil producer. Guyana will be known as the country that redefined the oil age journey; responsibly, equitably, and on the terms of the nations that once had no seat at the table.

With production expected to top 1.3 million barrels per day by 2027, Guyana is poised to enter the global oil giant ranks as the Green Oil Giant. (The Keystone Group)

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