PRESIDENT Irfaan Ali’s announcement that Guyana will head to the polls on September 1 has placed the spotlight once again on the importance of political stability and the timely delivery of credible election results. As the Guyana Elections Commission begins its preparations, the business community will be watching closely, not just to see who wins, but how efficiently the process unfolds.

Investors care about more than just natural resources. They also care about predictability, legitimacy, and stability in governance. Guyana’s experience in 2020 offers a cautionary tale. The five-month gap between the March 2 election and the swearing-in of a president on August 2 severely shook investor confidence back then. The delay stemmed from efforts to manipulate the results, including two tainted declarations for the crucial Region Four. One was ruled unlawful by the High Court and the other was discarded by the Elections Commission due to the sketchy circumstances under which it was derived. This triggered a national recount, multiple court cases, and widespread concern that Guyana might veer off the path of democracy.

The business community was not immune. The uncertainty stifled decision-making and dulled momentum at a time when the country’s economy was poised to accelerate. While the coronavirus pandemic certainly played a role in slowing economic activity, the political turmoil had a distinct and damaging impact of its own. International condemnation of the then government’s refusal to concede, compounded by talk of sanctions, ultimately pressured a return to democracy.

But some damage was done. One of the clearest examples was the delay of ExxonMobil’s Payara project, which had been slated for sanction in 2019. After the government lost a no-confidence motion in December 2018, it entered what should have been a limited caretaker role. Elections were delayed until March 2020, and the uncertainty before and after that vote made it difficult for the government to make key decisions.

The review of Payara, already underway with an independent contractor, was stymied amid calls by civil society and media for restraint. Only after a new government was sworn in was the project approved, in late 2020. Production began in November 2023, months ahead of schedule, thanks to SBM Offshore’s early delivery of the Prosperity floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, but still far later than it could have been if the project had been approved and sanctioned earlier.

The contrast since August 2020 has been stark. Guyana has approved three more oil projects, kicking off investment spending in excess of US$30 billion and facilitating an additional 750,000 barrels of daily production capacity. Other sectors have also benefitted from increased investor interest and business expansion. This momentum is the result of restored credibility and sustained political stability.

In a sign of lessons learned from 2020, the Representation of the People Act, which governs the conduct of elections, was amended in December 2022 to modernise the electoral system and safeguard its integrity. The reforms aimed to enhance transparency, accountability, and efficiency in the registration process, the compilation of the voters’ list, and the overall electoral machinery.

Among the key changes is a requirement for certified Statements of Poll to be provided to both the Chief Election Officer and the GECOM Chairperson, and for electronic copies to be posted publicly on the Commission’s website. The law also introduces stiff penalties for electoral offences, with fines in the millions and prison sentences ranging from three years to life, signalling a clear intent to deter fraud.

With the next elections approaching, the stakes are high. As long as the process is executed smoothly, with credible results delivered promptly and a peaceful transition of government, Guyana can continue to attract high levels of investment and cement its position as a rising economic power. But any sign of instability or electoral subversion could damage the hard-won trust that now underpins the people’s development.

Fortunately, the incumbent government has been blunt in its messaging regarding its respect for democracy, the rule of law, and the rights of people, specifically and profusely condemning the infractions which caused the 2020 electoral process to spiral out of control.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.