I doubt that David DeCaires and Miles Fitzpatrick would have allowed a letter by former GDF officer and former Presidential Communication Director in the APNU+AFC government to be published in the Stabroek News. The letter states that Guyana should be prepared because the invasion is inevitable.
There is absolutely no possibility even remotely that Venezuela will invade Guyana and the reasons are basic, logical and commonsensical. I believe that both Mr. Glenn Lall of the Kaieteur News (KN) and Anand Persaud, editor-in-chief of the Stabroek News have even an infinitesimal knowledge of what the international system is, what is its current shape and its contents and the dynamisms that propel those contents.

Mr. Archer’s letter was not carried in KN, and if Persaud had knowledge of how the international system works since the death of multipolarity after the Second World War and the rise of unipolarity after the war then superpower competition in the 1960s with the return of multipolarity in a more competitive form in the 21st century, then he would not have published that letter.

I know Mark Archer and he has served his country well as a high-level army officer in the 1970s, but I am afraid a lack of international relations knowledge lies at the heart of his mistakes in his letter asserting the inevitability of the invasion. It is outside the scope of a newspaper article to elaborate on reasons why Venezuela now and in the far future will not go into the Essequibo region.

Here, then, are brief notes. Huge powers in the international systems accept the domino theory in international relations. This simply means that within the spheres of influence, each great power feels that their security will be threatened if one of the nations in their sphere is taken over by a foreign competitor. That great power immediately goes into the domino paranoia syndrome, meaning the fear that others will fall.

Henry Kissinger stamped the domino effect on the foreign policy of the United States to the point where he crazily went about overthrowing South American and Central American countries based on the Munro Doctrine, of which the most tragic was Chile under Salvadore Allende. Two countries in CARICOM were made victims of the American fear of the domino effect – British Guiana under Cheddi Jagan and Grenada under Maurice Bishop.
Because of the acceptance of spheres of influence with its accompanying twin theory of the domino effect, China will not allow an invasion of North Korea, India would not allow a takeover of the Maldives Island, Russia would not allow a military incursion into Byelorussia, the US would not allow an invasion of Guyana.

The difference between the multipolarity of the 19th century and the multipolarity of the 21st century is the rise of China. Our current multipolarity is different from 1970s when the USSR, the European Union and the US were less antagonistic because the EU and the US were fraternal partners and both were not overtly afraid of the USSR.

Great power rivalry in the 21st century has taken on a more deadly shape, with the US seeing China as a rival that has no precedence in a multi-polar international system since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. Germany in 1933 was not seen as a major threat by Europe and the US. Germany’s attempt at global dominance caught Europe, the US and the USSR by surprise.

What is currently taking place in the international system today is the acceptance by the US that it has never had a rival in global competition as what China poses. Whether China has the capacity to be a global rival is not the point. All US military colleges, all American International Relations professors, and all of America’s political establishment bigwigs believe that China is the main rival of the US whose formidable challenges both the USSR and Russia lacked.
How does all this discussion above relate to the US position on an invasion by Venezuela? Three factors have to be factored into the equation. First, the Munroe Doctrine. This has been a fixed factor in US foreign policy. South America and the Caribbean are of paramount security interest to the US. If the US wants Greenland, why would it allow Venezuela to take over an American ally in South America?

Secondly, international prestige has always been a driving force in the quest for global hegemony. American prestige goes out the window and other rivals are emboldened if Guyana is allowed to fall. Thirdly, we began this article by emphasizing the domino effect. Once Venezuelan incursion results in the takeover of Guyana, dominoes will fall. The United States, because of national security, cannot allow that. If Venezuela invades Guyana, the US will invade Venezuela and topple Maduro.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.