POLITICS is strange, dynamic and unpredictable.
Today, one could be the boss calling all the political shots in a party, and tomorrow one finds oneself drowning in a large political cesspool, fighting to hang on to both position and power.
To think of it, it is all in the body of local politics. After all, with elections closer now, one has to keep one’s eyes on one’s political enemy outside the safe walls of the political party and its superstructure. Further, one has to look at the enemy ‘within’ if one is unpopular, hanging on to power and authority by a limb.

If one is unpopular and undemocratically elected to the position which one holds, one must look within the very party superstructure for the schemers and politicians who are part of the flock that would backstab their leader within an instant of a moment of weakness, or when given the opportunity at the right price. Thirty pieces of silver or a greater position?

If one is popular, one must look internally and externally because they are closer to reaching their prize if they can avoid ‘drinking from the poisoned political chalice’ or falling into a trap, plot, and being boxed-in or iced-out. Margaret Thatcher missed it in Britain by the fluke when she stepped down and away from political leadership of her party, the Tories.

She was the prime minister but had lost a large portion of the control, respect, love, admiration of the people and the politicians in her country, even though they had voted for her. Her policies, like the poll tax, were pushing the people too far, mixed with her iron-lady like leadership and personality. She had insisted on staying on but soon it was clear as day, there was a political coup taking place and right before her eyes.

Other UK prime ministers and political leaders suffered similar fates at various levels. In fact, leaders from right here in this hemisphere, South America and the Caribbean were forced to demit office before their full term or make steady policy changes and U-turns on various things, once they misunderstood the mood of their colleagues or the people.
At home, the very same situation or a similar political development seems to be unfolding in the body politic.

Recently, everybody and their grandma have been starting, restarting and announcing their political party to run for executive office in the next upcoming elections in Guyana. Everybody wants now to coalesce with one of the bigger powers and political parties, the PPP or PNC.

Everybody wants to improve their chances of getting votes and winning the hearts of the Guyanese public, never mind these political newcomers have no policy-articulation, policy-formulation, or political sense. They want to win votes. And while it is understood and that’s their democratic right, they cannot be taken seriously and will go back to their hiding places when the people see right through them.
That is not to say that the few who remain are not worthy of a second look to understand the dynamics that are pushing and pulling them towards forming a broad coalition and alliance.

Firstly, it seems as though leader of the PNC, Aubrey Norton, is being iced-out from his position of maximum power in any broad coalition likely to compete at the 2025 elections against the PPP/C. It would appear that Norton, whom the PNCR chose as its presidential candidate, has to now duel with the AFC Nigel Hughes for the top spot in the coalition.

Norton has already nastily fought off the likes of Roysdale Forde and Amanza Walton from within the PNCR, and now he is being challenged again by Hughes from the AFC, which is insisting that it leads the coalition.
The PNCR leader said ‘no’ at the first, second and several meetings where it was raised with opposition politicians from both the PNCR, WPA, and AFC. He simply would not stomach the idea because the PNC, in his mind, has brought far more strength when it comes to numbers and the electorate.

He was asked by the media which backed with questions on Friday, if he is fit and qualified to lead the coalition as opposed to Hughes, Hinds and others, to which he responded with agitation and in a seemingly vexed tone as if he was perplexed and puzzled.
Norton’s response though, was he would have to be convinced by pre-determined criteria, but he would do whatever it takes to see the back of the PPP. He did not say he would allow Hughes or another to get the post, or that he was prepared to entertain the idea at this early stage.

Secondly, several high-profile opposition persons and politicians want Hughes as opposed to Norton to lead the coalition, but are again put in their places constantly when this is mentioned at Congress Place, rallies or political meetings.
So, the political elites and politicians have crafted a plan which they have already been executing. A politician, who would not be named now, revealed that the plan is to frustrate Norton into resigning or giving up his ‘right’ to govern the opposition coalition or simply break up the coalition.

So far, APNU, made up of different little parties, have ‘iced’ him out from the positions of chairman and general secretary, but they are hopeful Norton would change his mind and come back within its fold.
Then, the AFC walked soon after he became PNCR leader, and the two have grown further away in policy positions on various issues ever since, although maintaining a parliamentary bond.

Well, Norton fired back by talking with the WPA clandestinely, while the WPA leaders are in discussion with the AFC. The AFC, on the other hand, is talking to the ANUG, JFA, TNM, LJP and certain so-called civil society organisations.
Norton, in the end, will have to face the electorate alone or give in to ‘this form of coalition politics’ which is not what he has in mind.
So, the march towards a broad coalition with or without the PNC, because no one wants Norton to be given that central spot, is unfolding as the infighting, bickering and political back-biting continues.

Thirdly, Norton has vowed to fight because he is seemingly of the opinion that the AFC and Hughes are just political opportunists and have really nothing to offer the public without the PNC.
Recall that the Guyanese public has never forgiven the coalition for the many scandals that occurred in ministries and organisations that were run by the AFC Ministers in Agriculture, National Security, Public Works and Infrastructure, Telecommunications, and Tourism, to name a few.

And Norton’s situation is not dissimilar to that of Thatcher.
Though he has never fought a political battle and won, or been in the posts of minister, prime minister or president, he is being surrounded and boxed in. He is being ‘iced out’ for a new- comer whom the PPP/C has already said they will mince to political pieces.
As a matter of fact, General Secretary of the PPP, Dr Bharrat Jagdeo said Thursday, this broad coalition and alliances which are spurring up are not a cause of concern to him, because his party will win.

Finally, the 2025 elections are promising to be a test of Norton’s mantle and political worth as a leader. He is going to cower under the pressure or burn under the intense fire that his opposition colleagues will no doubt put to him. Is he going to get through the many political plots or schemes of the opposition of which he is part and seeks to lead?

Or maybe, he will hang up his towel or resign as central political leader if the mood of the people and opposition politicians do not change, favouring and trusting him to lead.
Or is this frenzy and political chess part and parcel of the opposition’s plan to distract the attention of the ruling PPP, so that the elections in 2025 can be stolen from under their already tight grip?
Politics is strange and intriguing.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.