THIS past Friday, AFC launched its reinvigoration campaign tour in Linden. That is very symbolic. A typical campaign launch sets the direction for the remainder of the campaign, it is a tone setting activity, (this one was lackluster), it gives notice of the type of demographics being targeted and it identifies priorities.

There are three main ingredients that goes into the choice of areas for a campaign launch, the party feels close to the community based on demonstrated support in the past (these are our people), and a large organic invigorating turnout is expected to launch the campaign on a high note.
Location choice may also be influenced by the desire to signal to that community that a premium is placed on their support and that their territory represents the battleground. Further, a choice of location can reflect a major policy initiative the party wants to drive and the particular community holds symbolic value for honing the pillars of that policy prescription that is expected to benefit the rest of the nation. All other considerations for choice of campaign location are secondary.
In my column published on Monday last, I outlined why the opposition will be unable to expand its impact at the ballot box in the 2025 elections. The top leadership structure of the parties that are either in a current arrangement or consider themselves co-operating parties are all designed to appeal to a narrow segment of the voting population.

AFC’s launch of its campaign in Linden confirms the validity of views I espoused last week. AFC is claiming Linden as its people, it is their election battleground and symbolic policy platform. AFC has now confirmed, cemented and left no doubt that it has serious intentions competing with PNCR/APNU for its support base.
Word in the spit press has it that the WPA will also launch a series of public meetings and engagements. I bet they will do so in an APNU stronghold. Their battleground is the same; same leadership composition, same leadership styles, same message, same territory, same demographics, same comfort zone.

This strategy cannot win anything. In fact, the 2025 General and Regional Elections will be a repeat of the trends observed in the results of the 2023 Local Government Elections, PPP will gain grounds.
The AFC is supposed to be resurgent; they are supposed to be reinvigorated, reclaiming their mojo and well on their way to getting their groove back. After all, the AFC is attempting to revive its headquarters, the Center for Change, from its necropolistic state through sponsored staffing, regular weekly meetings and press conferences coupled with “listening tours” and now public meetings.

Despite all these attempts, AFC remains uninspiring, politically insipid and unimaginative. The much-anticipated growth in support is not happening. AFC is shouting in an echo chamber, hearing its own voice and mistaking it for support.
AFC’s behaviour in government is one of the main reasons why the coalition lost government and it will be the reason why any coalition for the 2025 elections will not be successful.
Based on the results of the last five elections, including 2015, APNU has maxed out its support, it has reached its electoral plateau under the current configuration. APNU is incapable, on its own, to cross the threshold needed to win the seat of government. To be able to even dream of capturing additional support, APNU will need major restructuring and overhaul of both its message and messengers.

It is not for the want of trying. The PNC became PNCR then morphed into APNU along with changes in leadership and messaging, yet, despite all of its efforts it remained stagnant at the ballot box.
APNU needed a party with the size, leadership structure and support base of the AFC to push them over the threshold, take them out of plateau. Therefore, any loss to the AFC is a loss to the coalition.
APNU held its plateau but AFC declined, partly because APNU spent a lot of time and energy trying to put AFC in its place and diminishing its role in government. They couldn’t see they were eroding the support base of the AFC, which were mostly inconvertible to APNU. There was a fundamental misunderstanding in the APNU camp of how much that “last mile” held by the AFC was worth.

That said, it is the lack of an appropriate regimen of responses from AFC that caused it to rapidly lose support. Despite the current level of shenanigans, AFC cannot regain a sufficient support base in coalition to win power or out of coalition to create a minority government.
The AFC no longer has the leadership format, support base, internal machinery, nor ability to capture the imagination of the voting public, and will be under tremendous pressure to retain seats in the National Assembly. Too much trust has been lost, the damage has already been done and AFC is politically blunt and practically “dead meat.”

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.