Comparing Party Congresses – My Predictions

What do you make of it?…

 

I DID quick cursory research and “boxed my mind”, as we say in local parlance. I could not come up with the situation where all the major parliamentary parties in Guyana have held their ‘Party Congress’ in the same calendar year, mere weeks apart. PPP recently held its congress, AFC is set to hold theirs on June 29, while PNC will also hold theirs the said weekend, from June 28-30.

The other parliamentary allocation is now held by Dr Asha Kissoon who represents The New Movement (TNM) by way of a list-joinder agreement between A New and United Guyana (ANUG), the largest of the trio, and Liberty and Justice Party (LJP). A senior member of ANUG said to me that he “believes” that his party will hold its leadership selection convocation sometime before the end of this year.

The congresses are contrasting. Let’s start with the PPP. There were no media reports of disagreements, contestation or accusations with respect to the selection of delegates, composition of membership lists, composition of electoral management committees or any other matter regarding the process leading up to the internal elections. After the congress ended there was one letter appearing in the press from someone who claimed to be a delegate and a few social media posts (from the usual “everything in the PPP is Bad” social media influencers), with the chief complaint being that there was a prepared list of preferred candidates being circulated among delegates. I do not know of the veracity of this claim, but whether or not this is true, my question is, how does that affect the democratic process within the party when votes are cast via secret ballots?

The circulating of lists of preferred candidates is nothing new in internal party congresses in Guyana. I was a member of the AFC since its inception and at every election ever held there were leadership-inspired preferred lists. In fact, it is normal for party leaders to directly influence the selection of delegates by bankrolling party groups to influence the outcome of the National Conference.

Further, an influential party founder is known to call or travel around the country and visit party groups and openly verbalize his choices for office holders. On this specific election to be held this month-end, party groups have challenged a most undemocratic practice of the General Secretary who is tasked with accepting and sorting nominations for an election in which he himself is a candidate/nominee.

The concept of a neutral election manager is elusive to the AFC. Given all that has gone on in the AFC so far, Sherod Duncan seems set to be elected leader of the AFC. He has the backing of Khemraj Ramjattan who has declined to contest for leader. I am told that Ramjattan has taken several actions to influence this outcome including putting his money ‘right whey he mouth deh’. Beyond the social media allure, Sherod Duncan cannot stem or repair the continued rapid decline of the AFC, as such, the 2025 electoral fortunes of the AFC remain bleak.

Across in the PNC they form electoral cliques and slates. They openly campaign on slates and the leader gets to directly and openly influence party groups and, in many ways, dictate and instruct groups, how to prepare their nomination papers.

It’s no secret that since the date of the Party Congress was announced there has been several accusations of corruption of electoral processes, including nominations being submitted before the party groups even had a chance to deliberate, group leaders submitting nominations without the knowledge of their members, unannounced changes to the process that favors the leader, unannounced changes to election management personnel to favour the leader and a whole host of other accusations but none more egregious than the disappearance of the computer and hard drive containing the membership lists and replacing it with alternative lists that favours the leader, compounded with accusations of financial impropriety. If even only some of these accusations are true then the outcome of the elections for leadership of the PNC is predictable.

Aubrey Norton will emerge leader and persons on his slate will occupy key party positions, under a cloud of controversy that will further alienate some active members and will negatively impact PNC’s returns at the ballot box in 2025.

Given the state of the WPA, having not held a credible leadership contest for more than 20 years, and the preponderance of one-man parties and small groups that do not practice any form of internal democracy, it leaves the People’s Progressive Party as the only national party that practices internal democracy. Given its state of organisation, leadership unity, diversity, fiscal outlays and growing support base, the PPP is set to handsomely win the 2025 elections and improve its returns at the ballot box.

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