VENEZUELA continues to roll out its campaign against Guyana. This week, surprisingly, the country’s President Nicolás Maduro inked an organic law and its documents, purporting to make two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, the Essequibo, into an alleged Venezuelan State.

This is despite the Declaration of Argyle, which he inked in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and recent meetings of Foreign Affairs officials from both ends in Brazil.
Guyana responded with a firm condemnation of the move, and an iron-fist commitment that it would inform all of its international and regional partners and organisations.

It followed through this week with protesting the move, on the regional and international scene, which it calls egregious. Georgetown said, too, that it respects international law and still has hopes Venezuela would cease its acts of aggression on the border controversy.

Firstly, this act is the second step towards a possible annexation of Guyana’s territory. The first was the pseudo-referendum which the Maduro Administration tailored the results to prove that Venezuelans wanted to protect their so-called rights to the Essequibo by any means necessary.

The government here must not just be paying close attention and engaging in its strategic partnerships on the border controversy. It must start preparing a much more practical and realistic defence operation, in the interim short-term, in the case of likely attempts to physically occupy its borders or invade its territory.

This calls for the leadership and security agencies to plan now, along with their international counterparts, a robust strategy for defending Guyana’s land and water borders from possible annexation or the threat therein.

Sure, it is clear that this act by Venezuela violates the Declaration of Argyle, and flies in the face of international diplomacy and international law, but who is to say that Maduro would not move to the third step quietly as he has done the second?
Secondly, the third step would be starting back the ‘war’ rhetoric around election time, which is May – July this year in Venezuela.

Maduro knows that if he can distract the Venezuelan public, and by extension the world, from looking closely at the internal Venezuelan politics, his party could easily win the election in the Bolivarian Republic.
He knows that this gamble, the signing into law of Guyana’s territory, is one issue that will whip up electoral support among Venezuelans who are desperate for a change in the country’s economic fortune.

He will talk rough, and promise the public that he could get oil-rich Essequibo from Guyana if he uses their army and war-like tactics. He will campaign hard on the Essequibo matter, because that is the only positive from a campaign blighted by very many negatives and reoccurring executive failures.

Think about every other area, the failures of the Maduro Administration outweigh the successes. He has banned the sole opposition unity candidate who won over 90 per cent of the vote at the opposition polls. He will find some way to blame the US and foreign powers, and say that they are using Guyana’s Essequibo to attack Venezuela.

In fact, he has long said that the US is setting up military bases in the region to launch a full attack on Venezuela. This could not be further from the truth, but this will be the electoral narrative that President Maduro will seek to promulgate.
So, Guyana must be careful and be prepared to counter the false narratives that may arise in a couple of months. Guyana can ill afford to let Maduro run wild and free with his commentary on the border controversy before he ends up winning the vote because Guyana did not set the record straight.

Thirdly, if he wins the ballot, he will become emboldened and much more brazen, because he will be expected to deliver on his promise to annex territory here.
It is anyone’s guess why he is scheduled to meet the leaders of Russia, China and other lesser democratic nations in the South American region later this year. If one thinks of this as routine, one will be wrong. Dead wrong!

Maduro is going on a fishing exercise with these nations in search of support for his plans to get Guyana’s Essequibo and unilaterally redefine our borders. It is clear as day that Venezuela can no longer look to the West, South, or North for support. They will look at certain countries with similar undemocratic experiences like Russia.

Finally, the government needs to redouble its efforts on all fronts when dealing with this border controversy. It must use foreign policy to see that the moves and steps that Venezuela is taking are part and parcel of a well-defined plan.

Make no bones about it, the government must not enter into another agreement or declaration with the Maduro Administration if it continues to act aggressively and display these worrying signs soon.

The Guyana embassy in Caracas must do much more than just talk and report back. It must keep protesting and keep a dossier of all suspicious activity so that Guyana’s case will be further strengthened.
Maduro cannot be trusted by his people and politicians in Venezuela. Certainly not by this ruling PPP Government which has respected and abided by international law and diplomacy on this border controversy.
Do not ever trust a madman; they are driven by desperation and the moment. So is Maduro. The gamble continues in vain.