–non-oil exports projected to expand by 21.4 per cent

CONSECUTIVE years of significant growth in the country’s output is expected to be followed by yet another year of success, as it has been projected that total export receipts could grow by 41.9 per cent to US$18.703 billion (approximately G$3.871 trillion) over the next 12 months.

A robust expansion in both oil and non-oil earnings is expected to drive this growth, according to Senior Minister in the Office of the President with Responsibility for Finance, Dr. Ashni Singh during his presentation of the milestone $1.146 trillion Budget 2024 to the National Assembly, on Monday.

Non-oil exports, according to Dr. Singh, are projected to expand by 21.4 per cent due to expected growth in key sectors, especially rice, gold, and bauxite.

Last year, earnings from non-oil exports amounted to an estimated US$1.550 billion, growing by 8.7 per cent when compared to the corresponding period in 2022, reflecting growth in commodities such as sugar, rice, and bulk alcohol, offsetting the lower earnings received from the gold and bauxite sectors.

Total export earnings grew by 16.9 per cent in 2023 to an estimated US$13.182 billion, reflecting higher earnings from both the oil and non-oil sectors. In the oil sector, export earnings are estimated to have grown by 18 per cent to US$11.631 billion, with an estimated 40.2 per cent increase in export volume.

Moving ahead, according to Dr. Singh: “Focus will be kept on developing a conducive environment to boost Guyana’s trade in both the import and export of goods and services. The main and key objective of Guyana’s trade policy remains the maintenance of our traditional markets while at the same time accessing new non-traditional markets with value-added diversified products produced by Guyanese and foreign investors in Guyana.”

He said Guyana remains an active participant in the multilateral system at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the nation is among the few countries that have successfully implemented the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, which aims to enable quick and seamless trade across customs border posts, and contains provisions for expediting the movement, release and clearance of goods, including goods in transit.

“The implementation of this Agreement by Guyana will lead to increased trade volumes across the customs border points, and also help enhance Guyana’s ease of doing business outlook to potential investors,” Dr. Singh said.

He further affirmed: “Advocating for increased and improved market access for Guyana’s products into regional markets through identification and removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers remains a priority policy agenda.”

Driven by critical investments and prudent management by the Government of Guyana, the country recorded significant economic growth of 33 per cent last year, with “stronger-than-expected” expansion in non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 11.7 per cent, Dr. Singh said.

“The expansion of the overall real economy in 2023 can be largely attributed to continued growth in oil and gas activity, with the notable achievement of first oil at the new floating, production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel, Prosperity, in November,” he said.

Additionally, while growth in the non-oil economy was mainly driven by expansions in the construction and services sectors, notable increases were also observed in all subsectors within agriculture, forestry, and fishing and manufacturing, as well as in the other mining and quarrying sub-sector.

“…Our government’s policies continue to be focused on supporting growth in the traditional pillars of the economy, while managing the oil and gas sector effectively,” Dr. Singh said.
Owing to continued focus on traditional and non-oil sectors, growth in this area is expected to reach 11.9 per cent next year.

Overall, Guyana’s economy is set to expand at an even faster pace in 2024, with real GDP growth projected at 34.3 per cent.

“Once realised, this will represent the fifth consecutive year in which the Guyanese economy will be growing at more than 20 per cent, and will result in Guyana growing at an annual average of 38.8 per cent over that five-year period. The projected expansion this year can be primarily attributed to further increases in oil production as the Prosperity FPSO ramps up its operations,” Dr. Singh said.