–country records 33 per cent GDP growth in 2023, projected to grow by 34.3 per cent this year

–non-oil economy also on course for double-digit growth driven by consistent expansion in all sub-sectors, Dr. Singh says

DRIVEN by critical investments and prudent management by the Government of Guyana, the country recorded significant economic growth of 33 per cent last year, with “stronger-than-expected” expansion in non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 11.7 per cent, according to Senior Minister in the Office of the President with Responsibility for Finance, Dr. Ashni Singh.
Dr. Singh, during his presentation of the massive $1.146 trillion 2024 budget to the National Assembly on Monday, said that the growth recorded last year significantly outstripped the 25.1 per cent growth and 7.9 per cent non-oil growth that was initially projected for 2023.

“The expansion of the overall real economy in 2023 can be largely attributed to continued growth in oil and gas activity, with the notable achievement of first oil at the new floating, production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel, Prosperity, in November,” he said.

Additionally, while growth in the non-oil economy was mainly driven by expansions in the construction and services sectors, notable increases were also observed in all subsectors within agriculture, forestry, and fishing and manufacturing, as well as in the other mining and quarrying sub-sector.

“…Our government’s policies continue to be focused on supporting growth in the traditional pillars of the economy while managing the oil and gas sector effectively,” Dr. Singh said.
Owing to continued focus in traditional and non-oil sectors, growth in this area is expected to reach 11.9 per cent next year.

This, according to Dr. Singh, will be driven by consistent expansion in all sub-sectors in the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors, continued expansion in construction and services, as well as a recovery in bauxite and gold mining.

“Once realised, the non-oil economy will have recorded four years of consecutive growth, and an average growth rate of 9.9 per cent annually since its 7.3 per cent contraction in 2020,” he said.
Just last year, the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors is estimated to have expanded by seven per cent in 2023. This performance is attributed to increases across all sub-sectors, namely other crops, rice-growing, livestock, fishing, sugar-growing, and forestry. This was despite the impact of El Niño on the production of a number of crops. And this sector is projected to grow 10.4 per cent this year, supported by increased production across all sub-sectors.

The mining and quarrying sector is estimated to have expanded by 42.6 per cent in 2023. As with recent years, the estimated growth is driven largely by an expansion in the oil and gas and support services industry which, when combined with growth observed in the other mining industry, outweighs the declines observed in gold and bauxite-mining activities. This sector is projected to expand by 43.6 per cent this year amidst further growth in oil and gas and other mining and quarrying, as well as an expected recovery in the gold and bauxite-mining sub-sectors.

Further, the manufacturing sector is estimated to have expanded by 25 per cent in 2023, with growth recorded in all three sub-categories. Sugar and rice production are estimated to have expanded by 28 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively, and other manufacturing by 31.8 per cent. Within other manufacturing, growth was driven mainly by the manufacturing of fabricated metal products and non-metallic products.

This year, the manufacturing sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory to expand by 16 per cent, with increases across all three sub-sectors.

Additionally, the construction sector is estimated to have expanded by 26.8 per cent in 2023, building on the growth of 26.3 per cent observed in 2022.

“Growth in the sector continues to be driven by intensified activity in both the private and public sectors, with a strong construction component in the Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP),” Dr. Singh said.

And, as in 2023, the impetus in the construction sector is expected to be maintained this year as the sector is projected to expand by 23.4 per cent.

“This is in alignment with the robust level of construction activities in the PSIP expected in 2024, as well as the continued investment in the private sector, particularly in the areas of hospitality and housing,” the senior minister said.

The services sector is estimated to have expanded by 10.3 per cent last year, with growth recorded across all of the service industries.

“The overall 2023 performance is largely attributed to growth recorded in administrative and support services, wholesale and retail trade and repairs, accommodation and food services, and transport and storage. These industries grew by 20.6 per cent, nine per cent, 13 per cent, and 12.1 per cent, respectively,” Dr. Singh said.

Building on the growth achieved in 2023, the services sector is projected to expand by 6.9 percent in 2024.

This expansion is expected to be supported by spillovers from the other sectors – agriculture, construction, housing, and extractives – with the renewed interest in Guyana as a burgeoning investment and tourist destination.

Notable expansions are projected for wholesale and retail trade and repairs, administrative and support services, information and communication, and transport and storage. These are expected to increase by 8.3 per cent, 8.6 per cent, 12.9 per cent, 8.2 per cent, respectively.

Overall, Guyana’s economy is set to expand at an even faster pace in 2024, with real GDP growth projected at 34.3 per cent.

“Once realised, this will represent the fifth consecutive year in which the Guyanese economy will be growing at more than 20 per cent, and will result in Guyana growing at an annual average of 38.8 per cent over that five-year period. The projected expansion this year can be primarily attributed to further increases in oil production as the Prosperity FPSO ramps up its operations,” Dr. Singh said.