FOR the first time in living memory, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are offering differing projections on the growth rate of a fast-growing developing country, as is the case of measuring Guyana in 2024 as the world’s faster-growing oil-rich economy.

Assessments by the two entities rarely collide, but in December 2023, the IMF forecast 26.6 per cent growth for Guyana’s economy in 2024, following a 38.4 per cent projected expansion for 2023.

But the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects Report, published not much later in January 2024, projects Guyana’s economy will grow 38.2 per cent in 2024, not only surpassing the IMF December forecast, but also significantly improving the overall growth prospects for the Caribbean region.

As indicated in two successive related reports by OilNOW (on January 8 and 10, 2023 on the IMF and World Bank reports, respectively), the latter has pointed out that without Guyana, the Caribbean region will see a growth rate of 4.1 per cent in 2024, but nearly double at 7.6 per cent with Guyana.

OilNOW says Guyana’s growing “economic surge” is largely attributed to “commencement of the Payara project in November 2023, anticipated to hit 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) early this year, and boost total oil production capacity to around 620,000 bpd in the first quarter.

Following substantial growth in 2022, the World Bank last year upgraded Guyana to a ‘high-income economy’ (the very top of four income groups (low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high), based on their gross national income (GNI) per capita.

At the end of 2022, Guyana ranked 67th from 196 economies, and its rating, according to OilNOW, “is expected to climb considerably-higher following the inclusion of growth numbers for 2023”.

However, the IMF also warned that the economy “could become overheated, leading to inflationary pressures and appreciation of the real exchange rate beyond the level implied by a balanced expansion of the economy” and “risks of highly-volatile commodity prices, adverse climate shocks and governance concerns”.

Guyana’s overall oil production is expected to surge by 35.1 per cent in 2024 (thanks to the Payara project), and is now anticipated to reach its peak output of 220,000 bpd early this year.
OilNOW noted, too, that Guyana’s “non-oil gross domestic product (GDP)” is expected to grow by 6.6%, following a 9.1% increase in 2023, “propelled by the ripple effects of the oil sector’s expansion, increased government spending from rising oil revenues and growth in the construction and hospitality sectors.”

Average oil production in Guyana for 2024 could exceed 600,000 bpd — up from approximately 380,000 bpd in 2023 – and in light of this, according to OilNOW, “the IMF’s growth projection for the oil sector may be conservative.”

These are simply mind-boggling figures for those who simply refuse to accept that poor nation can manage new wealth well.

Guyana has also demonstrated it not only intends to defy the doom-and-gloom predictions of a supposed “Dutch Disease’ curse on its new wealth through guaranteed bad management and corruption.

The Guyana government has instead shown its capacity and demonstrated its ability to so-manage the nation’s new oil wealth as to defy the negative predictions, year-after-year since 2020.
Domestic naysayers will forever exercise their democratic right to freely claim, even argue, that better should be done, but have not yet provide the verifiable facts and figures to fuel their claims that Guyanese aren’t yet benefitting from the nation’s oil wealth.

Apart from flaring-up new oil and gas fields, Guyana has earned huge sums from its innovation of Carbon Credit sales, with set portions of the vast earnings going to development of hundreds of indigenous villages and funding sustainable climate change mitigation, while a national gas line will make electricity and cooking gas cheaper and new developments are being financed across the 83,000 square mile (616,000 square-kilometre) nation, including a brand-new Demerara Harbour Bridge, continuous upgrading of the Cheddi Jagan International Airport, major multi-lane highway construction, building of new schools, hospitals and health centers, distribution of tens of thousands of new house lots – and every other measurement of progress that people can see and feel behind the positive figures being belted-out in the last three years by the World Bank, IMF and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

The government hasn’t allowed the revived controversy over Venezuela’s claim to the Essequibo region to distract from continuing to manage the economy in ways that take benefits directly to people, in their pockets and communities.

The 2024 national budget will surely include more direct benefits for more Guyanese and will also naturally attract the expected opposition refusal to acknowledge anything by way of positive achievements spelt-out in the estimates of revenue and expenditure.

Guyana started 2024 in the Chair of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and as the lead government for Agriculture and Food Security, will also be able to share its wealthy experiences in being the only member-state that now produces over-half of its own food.

It will also help accelerate the pace of regional progress towards the laudable goal of reducing the region’s food import bill by 25 per cent in 2025.

In the meantime, Guyana has chosen to stay out of the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) and instead guide its own way through the current thick but smooth oily waters, mindful of growing global efforts to replace fossil fuels with green energy.

Guyana’s international economic ties have grown in the past three years to include interest by other major global public and private oil and gas interests in investing in the growth and expansion of new discoveries and growing prospects for continuing growth at least over the next decade.

As such, the nation’s future – and CARICOM’s too, by related expansion – continues to shine brighter.

How-long Guyana’s new energy wealth will continue is unknown to anyone, but for as long as it continues to be managed like it is, prospects will continue to look good and feel better with every budget, including 2024 and 2025.