–World Bank forecasts almost 40 per cent GDP growth for Guyana this year

GUYANA’S economic outlook continues to be impressive, as the country is on course to record massive growth yet again.

According the World Bank Group’s latest economic report titled “Global Economic Prospects,” the Caribbean economies are expected to grow 7.6 per cent in 2024 and 5.4 per cent in 2025, after expanding 4.6 per cent in 2023. However, the report noted that Guyana’s economic outlook far outstrips its regional counterparts.

“Except Guyana, which remains in a resource-based boom since the discovery of oil in 2015, the region’s growth is expected to accelerate to 4.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.9 per cent in 2025,” the report detailed.

The report forecast that Guyana’s economy is expected to grow 38.2 per cent this year and 15.2 per cent in 2025 – which is the highest and only double digits projections for the Caribbean.

In other recent reports, it was noted that Guyana’s economic growth projections remain far above its counterparts in the Latin American and Caribbean region.

In the Staff Report compiled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the short term, Guyana anticipates a substantial boost in oil production, reaching approximately 550,000 barrels per day, with the operation of the third field, Payara.

The prospects for agriculture, according to the IMF, were also positive in 2023, when the sugar industry was expected to recover from the 2021 floods.

The construction and services sectors were also positioned to support the non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Overall, it was estimated that GDP growth would reach 38.4 per cent in 2023, while non-oil real GDP growth was expected to top nine per cent. Details on the actual performance of the economy last year are not yet available.

Looking into the medium term, the IMF’s staff projects an extremely robust growth trajectory for Guyana. Private investments in the expanding oil and gas and service industries are anticipated to be significant drivers of growth.

Public capital spending is expected to remain elevated, averaging about 6½ per cent of GDP per year, predominantly financed by oil revenue transfers, expected to be around G$278 billion on average. In the staff’s projections, the economy is forecast to double in size by 2028.

Meanwhile, another report, the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2023 report published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) noted that the government introduced a suite of measures in 2022 and 2023, which have contributed to a decline in the inflation rate in 2023.

Guyana is poised for continued rapid expansion, with on-average growth of 20 per cent per year during 2024-28.
The IMF projects that non-oil GDP growth will be sustained at 5.5 per cent, as the government continues its plans to address the country’s developmental needs.

The IMF reported that the government’s current expansionary fiscal policy stance is appropriate, given the country’s development needs and is appropriately balanced by monetary policy.