WHAT do the people of a country want? How do we know what they want, what they do not approve of and where their thinking is going? The most popular and common method of gauging the thoughts of a nation is the scientific poll.

It is outside the scope of a column to describe the scientific approach to doing polls, suffice it to say the survey has to, and must, embrace the representative sample of the total society. Telephonic survey is nonsense simply because it will not yield a representative sample.

How do the French people see the Gaza genocide? France has 500,000 Jews. It has six million Muslims, yet the French President went to meet the Israeli Prime Minister who is committing genocide in Gaza and supports Israel all the way.

A scientific poll in France would probably show that the French people do not support their president’s position.
Here in Guyana, some well-placed individuals and the Kaieteur News and Stabroek News have been invoking the name of the Guyanese people in their quest to get the government to demand that Exxon renegotiate the oil contract.

It is easy to bandy about the term, “the Guyanese people.” But what do the Guyanese people want and if a poll was taken and the relevant questions were asked, do you think the Guyanese people will demand contract renegotiations?

I don’t think so and maybe I am wrong and we can only know if we take a scientific poll. And if people should write about the horrific implications in demanding renegotiations, and also people explain the benefits of the oil industry to Guyana’s future, how then would Guyanese react to a poll about renegotiations? A staunch anti-government critic, Gordon Moseley, remarked a few days ago that people need to talk about the benefits of oil production to Guyana.

There are two things to note about the oil contract renegotiation. First, it is a bandwagon of people who are anti-government. What these people have done is to extract from their hidden, political agenda, the loopholes in the Exxon deal and have weaponised it against the government.

Look at the renegotiation bandwagon and you will see it is a cabal of people filled with passion against the government that has been harassing the Ali presidency since its beginning in August 2020. If the contract is renegotiated, they will reshape their hidden, political agenda, discover another aspect of government behaviour, and rally against the government.

The fixed mentality of the anti-oil lobby is to weaken the government. If the PPP administration goes out of office, you bet your last dollar, they will find an alternative methodology to justify Exxon’s presence.

The point about these people is that they want the PPP out of power and the renegotiation cry is the only game in town. These people have no support in Guyana and any poll about how Guyanese feel about them will reveal this lack of support.

The second thing to note about the oil contract is the knowledge one should have of international politics, global realpolitik, the Venezuelan threat and CARICOM stability. Guyana is a moderately unknown country in the global system that has no cemented, traditional intimacy in international political economy outside of CARICOM and the Western world – US, Canada and EU.

A country like Guyana is in no position to force Exxon to renegotiate or leave. The immediate response from Exxon is that they cannot renegotiate and they will leave.

That would leave Guyana isolated in the world with possible disastrous or maybe tragic repercussions. Four reactions are inevitable – the US will not tolerate Exxon being treated like that and will pressure Guyana. Secondly, Guyana’s standing in CARICOM will lay flat on its face.

Thirdly, Western countries will be enraged at Guyana’s violation of the sanctity of international business contracts and will react adversely. Fourthly, given our regional and international isolation, Venezuela will invade this country.

What all Guyanese in and out of the land need to know is that the people who are clamouring for renegotiation are not stupid. They know Exxon will refuse to relook at their investment portfolio and will leave.

What the anti-oil lobby wants is that in the ensuing crisis where Guyana is isolated with possible international sanctions, CARICOM ostracisation and Venezuelan threats, they can gain political capital from the ensuing stability.

This is what the anti-oil lobby wants. They know the contract cannot be renegotiated and should not be tampered with but what other stratagem they have to confront the government with? One of the questions on a survey about renegotiation should go like this – if Exxon refuses to negotiate and leave do you think that is good for Guyana’s economy. Some 99 per cent would say no.