IF one takes a careful look at the news, one would reasonably think that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may be suffering from a bout of insanity and may be living a dangerous fantasy when he declared that Guyana’s territory, the Essequibo, belongs to that country.

This fantasy has even led Maduro to declare the creation of a new Venezuelan state with an appointed governor and defence department. Not only that, but Maduro said all Guyana’s residents in the Essequibo will undergo a census, and be offered Venezuelan identification cards. Following the sham, fame and padded referendum which took place in Venezuela on Sunday last, Maduro said the National Assembly in that country is expected to pass a law to formally set out the structure of Guyana’s Essequibo.

Maduro has done and said everything that clears the way to the annexation of Guyana’s territory, declaring instability in the Caribbean, Latin America and South America.

Guyana’s government, however, is playing the game sensibly, and is proving smarter than the world will ever know. The government seems to be skillfully using diplomacy to handle the situation by relaying its case to the world clearly. The government is also carefully making the point that the aggressor is Maduro and his government in the manufactured conflict with Guyana. It is making sure the world knows that it is only interested in peace, but would not cede any territory that belongs to it to Venezuela or any other country.

This seems to mean that the government knows that there is no question surrounding the ownership of the County of Essequibo, and if there was a question, it was settled by virtue of the 1899 Arbitral Award.

The government is adopting the posture that it will be vindicated again at the International Court of Justice, where it has an active case against Venezuela for this very matter.
This does not in any way mean Guyana is not going to defend itself in the face of aggression while it waits on the outcome of the court case.

Firstly, Maduro is underestimating Guyana’s posture and size. He thinks that Guyana is weak and helpless, but he is dead wrong. Guyana seems to clearly understand when and how to act decisively.

The government is playing the game carefully, and is demonstrating restraint and responsibility. It is also exuding political maturity and sense in this conflict.

Guyana has adopted the right posture, and its dependence on diplomacy is justified. It must avoid a war with Venezuela at all costs as Maduro seems to want. It should remain calm but assertive and confident when responding to the baseless utterances of Maduro.

Secondly, Maduro seems to be desperate in his attempt to snatch the Essequibo ahead of the court ruling and the Venezuelan Presidential Election in 2024. Maduro knows he is not popular in Venezuela; his policies have plunged that country into poverty and economic crisis, where inflation, migration, unemployment, and hopelessness are eating away at the moral and economic fabric of the society. Under his government, corruption and mismanagement are the order of the day; just look at what is happening in the oil industry.

There is no domestic issue for Maduro to stand and campaign on, so he sheepishly makes the Essequibo the scapegoat. He knows if he can have the nationalistic and patriotic sentiments of Venezuelans running high, they can be distracted from the real domestic issues like the basic food shortages and the worrying social circumstances.

Maduro thinks he is smart, but Guyana and the right-thinking people of Venezuela are smarter; they know this is Maduro’s political diversion.

He is making a big mistake, and this incident could cost Venezuelans much more than it will Guyana. Afterall, Maduro will not win the elections if it is free and fair in Venezuela.

Thirdly, this fantasy he has with the islands is similar to one that Argentina had with the Falkland Islands. There are many similarities in this historical drama, and Maduro should know how it ends. He must stop at this point, or he will be politically ruined, because Guyana, like Britain, will defend every inch of the Essequibo. It is carefully watching and gauging Maduro’s next step.

Finally, Maduro must reassess the situation. He must end this aggression towards Guyana, and cease making claims about the Essequibo. If he cannot afford a complete U-turn on this issue, he must go to court and join the proceedings at the ICJ. He will gain much more respect regionally and internationally if he does this while focusing the attention of his government on the state of the Venezuelan people. He will be seen as a stable leader in this hemisphere if he respects international law, and tones down his dialect towards Guyana.

In the modern age, there is no place or justification for going to annex another state’s territory; it is reminiscent of the imperialist mentality and brutish. It should be frowned upon and treated with scorn. Whichever way, Guyana is prepared!