RECENT projections by Business Monitor International (BMI), a Fitch Solutions Research Unit, suggest that Guyana’s economy could expand by an astonishing 115% over the next five years. The nation’s rapid growth is mostly due to its thriving oil production and export sectors.

Guyana is rapidly gaining global recognition for its remarkable economic growth. According to Andrew Trahan, BMI’s head of risk for Latin America, Guyana is set to maintain its position as the world’s fastest-growing economy.

He emphasized that the pace of this growth will depend on the swift implementation of additional oil-production initiatives.
BMI envisions a substantial increase in oil production, with output skyrocketing from approximately 390,000 barrels per day in 2023 to over a million barrels per day by 2027. This significant growth is expected to be driven by the opening of new offshore fields within the Stabroek block, operated by a consortium led by Exxon Mobil.
Trahan highlighted that Guyana’s robust economic expansion is closely tied to the rapid expansion of its oil production capabilities following a series of recent discoveries. This increase in oil production is set to significantly bolster Guyana’s net exports, further contributing to its economic growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also shares this optimistic outlook, projecting a remarkable 38% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for Guyana in 2023. This follows a record-breaking 62.3% real GDP growth rate in 2022, making it the highest globally.

However, experts are cautious about potential risks that could impact this bullish outlook. Valerie Marcel, an associate fellow at the think tank Chatham House, stressed the importance of diversifying Guyana’s economy to mitigate the risks associated with oil dependence. Marcel noted that Guyana faces potential challenges related to corruption and the “Dutch disease,” a phenomenon whereby rapid economic development in one sector adversely affects other sectors.

While Guyana’s economic trajectory remains highly positive, political stability and fluctuating oil prices are factors that could influence its future growth. Despite these challenges, Guyana’s strong energy exports, increased investment, employment opportunities, and rising government revenues are expected to fuel its continued growth in the coming years.
BMI’s Trahan believes that Guyana will retain its title as the world’s fastest-growing economy in 2023 and expects this trend to persist for at least the next two years. He anticipates that real GDP will rise approximately 115% between 2022 and 2028, driven by stronger energy exports and positive economic spillover effects.

As Guyana continues its impressive economic ascent, diversification efforts and political stability will be pivotal in ensuring the sustainability of this remarkable growth story.