Flight turbulence increasing as planet heats up – study
Brazil economists cut long-term inflation expectations, unchanged for months
(Reuters) Brazilian economists have reduced their long-term inflation expectations, putting an end to months of unchanged projections that the central bank had cited as a cause for concern.
According to the median forecast of a weekly central bank survey on Monday, 2025 inflation projections now stand at 3.9%, down from the previous estimate of 4.0% calculated since March 24. The expectation for 2026 has also decreased to 3.88% from the previous 4.0% forecast since March 17.
The central bank has consistently expressed concern about increased inflation expectations for long-term horizons in its justifications for the need to keep the benchmark interest rate at a 13.75% cycle-high, which has remained steady since September despite cooling inflation.
This policy stance has faced frequent criticism from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who sees it as hindering economic growth.
Central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto had already emphasized last week that long-term inflation expectations would start to decline, pointing to a clearer economic environment.
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The weekly survey also showed lower inflation forecasts for 2023 (5.42% from 5.69%) after consumer prices decelerated more than expected in May.
Nevertheless, the current reading remains well above this year's 3.25% inflation target.
Inflation expectations for 2024 also dropped to 4.04% from 4.12% in the previous week, still above the 3.0% target, which is also the official goal for 2025.
"The improving inflation outlook for 2023 should reduce inertial forces for 2024," Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos wrote in a note to clients. "Furthermore, the improving inflation expectations for 2024 and the longer-term horizon of 2025-26 should be acknowledged and welcomed by the central bank."
Ramos estimated that this scenario should enable the central bank to start cutting rates in August. The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for June 21.
Brazil economists cut long-term inflation expectations, unchanged for months (Reuters) Brazilian economists have reduced their long-term inflation expectations, putting an end to months of unchanged projections that the central bank had cited as a cause for concern. According to the median forecast of a weekly central bank survey on Monday, 2025 inflation projections now stand at 3.9%, down from the previous estimate of 4.0% calculated since March 24. The expectation for 2026 has also decreased to 3.88% from the previous 4.0% forecast since March 17. The central bank has consistently expressed concern about increased inflation expectations for long-term horizons in its justifications for the need to keep the benchmark interest rate at a 13.75% cycle-high, which has remained steady since September despite cooling inflation. This policy stance has faced frequent criticism from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who sees it as hindering economic growth. Central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto had already emphasized last week that long-term inflation expectations would start to decline, pointing to a clearer economic environment. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Report this ad The weekly survey also showed lower inflation forecasts for 2023 (5.42% from 5.69%) after consumer prices decelerated more than expected in May. Nevertheless, the current reading remains well above this year's 3.25% inflation target. Inflation expectations for 2024 also dropped to 4.04% from 4.12% in the previous week, still above the 3.0% target, which is also the official goal for 2025. "The improving inflation outlook for 2023 should reduce inertial forces for 2024," Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos wrote in a note to clients. "Furthermore, the improving inflation expectations for 2024 and the longer-term horizon of 2025-26 should be acknowledged and welcomed by the central bank." Ramos estimated that this scenario should enable the central bank to start cutting rates in August. The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for June 21.

(BBC) Flight turbulence has increased as climate change has warmed the planet, researchers say.
Scientists at Reading University in the UK studied clear-air turbulence, which is harder for pilots to avoid.
They found that severe turbulence had increased 55% between 1979 and 2020 on a typically busy North Atlantic route.
They put the increase down to changes in wind speed at high altitudes due to warmer air from carbon emissions.
“Following a decade of research showing that climate change will increase clear-air turbulence in the future, we now have evidence suggesting that the increase has already begun,” said Prof Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading who co-authored the study.

“We should be investing in improved turbulence forecasting and detection systems, to prevent the rougher air from translating into bumpier flights in the coming decades.”
Flight routes in the USA and North Atlantic saw the largest increases. Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic also saw significant increases in turbulence.

Prof Williams said the increased turbulence was due to greater wind shear – or differences in wind speed – in the jet stream, a strong wind system blowing from west to east, about five to seven miles above the Earth’s surface. It exists largely due to a difference in temperature between the world’s equator and poles.

While satellites can’t see the turbulence, they can see the structure and the shape of the jet stream, allowing it to be analysed.
Radar can pick up turbulence from storms, but clear-air turbulence is almost invisible and hard to detect.
Turbulent flights are not only uncomfortable, but can also cause injuries for those on the flight. Severe turbulence is very rare, but clear-air turbulence can come out of the blue, when passengers are not belted in.

Consumers shop at a weekly street market in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes)

“Nobody should stop flying because they’re afraid of turbulence, but it is sensible to keep your seat belt fastened all the time, unless you’re moving around, which is what the pilots do,” said Prof Williams. “That is almost a guarantee that you will be safe even in the worst turbulence.”
There are also financial consequences. The aviation industry loses between $150m (£120m) and $500m (£400m) in the US alone annually due to effects of turbulence, including wear-and-tear on aircraft, said the researchers. It also has an environmental cost, as pilots burn up fuel avoiding it.
The study was published in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters.

US judge temporarily blocks Microsoft acquisition of Activision
(Reuters) – A U.S. judge late on Tuesday granted the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) request to temporarily block Microsoft Corp’s (MSFT.O) acquisition of video game maker Activision Blizzard (ATVI.O) and set a hearing next week.
U.S. District Judge Edward Davila scheduled a two-day evidentiary hearing on the FTC’s request for a preliminary injunction for June 22-23 in San Francisco. Without a court order, Microsoft could have closed on the $69 billion deal as early as Friday.
Davila said the temporary restraining order “is necessary to maintain the status quo while the complaint is pending (and) preserve this court’s ability to order effective relief in the event it determines a preliminary injunction is warranted and preserve the FTC’s ability to obtain an effective permanent remedy in the event that it prevails in its pending administrative proceeding.”
Microsoft and Activision must submit legal arguments opposing a preliminary injunction by June 16; the FTC must reply on June 20.
Microsoft and Activision did not immediately comment. The FTC declined comment.
Davila said the bar on closing will remain in place until at least five days after the court rules on the preliminary injunction request.
The FTC, which enforces antitrust law, initially asked an administrative judge to block the transaction in early December, arguing it would give Microsoft’s video game console Xbox exclusive access to Activision games, leaving Nintendo (7974.T) consoles and Sony Group Corp’s (6758.T) PlayStation out in the cold.
Microsoft’s bid to acquire the “Call of Duty” video game maker was approved by the EU in May, but British competition authorities blocked the takeover in April.
Microsoft has said the deal would benefit gamers and gaming companies alike, and has offered to sign a legally binding consent decree with the FTC to provide “Call of Duty” games to rivals including Sony for a decade.
The case reflects the muscular approach to antitrust enforcement taken by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.

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