THE findings of the latest ongoing opinion poll being conducted by Dr Vishnu Bisram for the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) on the upcoming Local Government Elections, puts the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) way ahead of the opposition, A Partnership for National Unity (APNU).
Other opposition aspirants (entities) including independents have very little support. The election is being contested mainly between the PPP and PNC/APNU.

As surmised in earlier NACTA polls, the PNC is not fielding candidates everywhere, handing a no-contest PPP victory in many seats. The poll finds PNC (APNU) struggling in its traditional strongholds to fend off stiff challenges from the PPP/C, which is making gains in every NDC and municipality held by the PNC.
The ten municipalities and 70 NDCs have varying numbers of seats depending on population size. Each has two types of seats — equally divided into constituency (first past the post) and Proportional Representation (or top up) seats.

The present poll is consistent with earlier tracking polls that project a landslide victory for the PPP/C.
Based on filed nominations, the PPP/C has already won several NDCs, as it was the only party to field candidates.
In several other NDCs and municipalities, it has also won seats because there are no opponents. The PPP/C is the only party fielding candidates in all seats and all municipalities and NDCs. In total, the PPP/C has already won 291 seats in the local government elections because of a lack of an opposition.

The poll reveals PPP/C has made gains everywhere including in PNC strongholds. The poll finds ethnic cross-over support to the PPP/C, but virtually none for the PNC.
Thus, the PPP/C is expected to win seats previously held (2016 and 2018) by PNC. However, the Party still trails in Georgetown, New Amsterdam, Linden, Mahdia, and Bartica. The PPP/C is winning large majorities in other municipalities and in an overwhelming majority of NDCs.

Local Government Elections are constitutionally held every three years. The last LGE was in 2018. Elections were due in late 2021 but was put off because of the COVID-19 pandemic and personnel issues at the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM).
The local elections were delayed to now in order to hire a CEO and deputy CEO, and to hire and train personnel to conduct the elections.

The PPP/C is seeking its third consecutive victory and the PNC, its first since local elections re-appeared in 2016, 22 years after it was held in 1994.
This local election follows the March 2020 general elections in which the PPP/C was returned to office after a five-month impasse and after more than five years of APNU+AFC rule.
Almost every poll said the PPP/C will win the local elections in terms of garnering a greater proportion of local authority areas (LAAs), seats, and total votes received.

Voters also feel that the APNU will likely retain municipalities it currently is defending but with a reduced majority of seats. The poll finds several constituency seats in these five municipalities are very close and can go either way.
The biggest hurdle for the PNC seems to be leadership, as party supporters lack faith and confidence in their leader and prefer someone else, suggesting the party would do much better if it has a more likeable leader.

It must be emphasised that opinion polls in general are only a reflection of support at a particular time. Surveys also have margin of errors. The current poll has a margin of error of four per cent. Frequently repeating a survey over a long period of time may help to reduce the margins of error. Also, polls conducted around the same time should have similar results. It is not known if other polls are being conducted