NOT only in the Caribbean but also around the world, Guyana is creating a stir. It is only natural that there is increased interest in the nation, which was just a few decades ago one of the poorest in the western hemisphere, given its growth rate, which now is by far the greatest in the Caribbean and among the highest in the world.

The majority of the post-independence years saw the economy of the nation oscillate between negative and, at best, sluggish development, partly as a result of the PNC’s authoritarian and anti-democratic administration.

Now that everything has changed, the nation is firmly on the road to steady economic growth. Now that the story has changed, a new growth dynamic is forming that few could have predicted only 10 years ago.

And while it is true that oil has changed the game in terms of our shifting economic fortunes, this development is only a small part of a larger dynamic that began in October 1992, when the PPP/C was elected to office following nearly three decades of dictatorial rule, marking the return of democracy.

Rebuilding the decades-long path of devastation left by the PNC regime was a protracted and challenging process, but thanks to the PPP/C administration’s good leadership and significant international assistance, the nation was able to regain its status as a nation moving toward sustained economic growth and development.
Under the PNC government, the nation had a “pariah” status; today, it is an important development partner on the regional and global scene.

Reiterating that Guyana’s growth is intimately connected to that of the region as a whole, President Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali pledged Guyana’s support to the regional integration movement. Guyana once put a strain on the rest of the CARICOM area, but that is all in the past today. Currently in a position to influence the growth trajectory of the entire area, Guyana may take the lead.

Even if Guyana’s oil and gas resources continue to grab attention, President Ali affirmed that his administration is still dedicated to creating a diverse economy that would lead to sustainable growth.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), in its most recent report on the Caribbean, said Guyana’s export volume of exported goods could increase by 50 per cent over the next four years, 2022 to 2026.

The IDB stated that the current global context of high commodity prices affects countries differently, depending on whether they are primarily commodity importers or exporters, and directly affects their terms of trade, in its most recent report titled: “Caribbean Economics: Headwinds facing the post-pandemic recovery.”

“Countries that mainly export products that attract price increases benefit from improved terms of trade, which means imports become relatively cheaper, supporting a country’s purchasing power. For Guyana, this development is two-fold, since the country is not only benefitting from higher energy prices but also from higher levels of oil production,” the IDB report stated.

As oil production continues ramping up, these trade surpluses are likely to continue growing. The oil sector is expected to expand by 113 per cent in 2022, accounting for approximately 90 per cent of GDP growth this year.

The non-oil economy is also projected to have a better-than-expected turnout of 9.6 per cent for 2022 compared to 7.7 per cent projected in the country’s 2022 budget.

The main drivers of growth in the non-oil economy, according to the IDB, include agriculture, services, and construction, which are projected to grow by 11.9 per cent, 6.3 per cent, and 19 per cent, respectively, all higher than originally estimated in the budget. At this rate, one could only assume that there is nothing but consistent growth in store for Guyana.