AS everywhere else, the Caribbean simply cannot escape the global repercussions of the continuing Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Politicians and diplomats are arguing over approaches to responses, but while they exchange, the crisis continues to result in increased energy prices for essentials, from fuel to cooking gas.

Now the region must brace for an unavoidable and inescapable food crisis that’s already started to bite in Europe and North America – and is heading the Caribbean’s way faster than the discussions and debates can end in practical recommendations.

Take the price of wheat, which influences the price of flour.

According to TIME Magazine on March 8, 2022: “In Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, prices for [some] unsubsidised bread have jumped in the past week.”

It added: “The war has already driven wheat prices 70 per cent higher in Chicago this year and is threatening to upend global food trade. Russia and Ukraine are vital suppliers of grains, vegetable oil and fertilisers, which mean that supply disruptions will be felt all over the world. Wheat prices have surpassed levels last seen during the 2008 global food crisis — which helped spark widespread protests — and a United Nations index of food prices hit a record in February.”

The TIME article continued: “In Egypt, bakers say unsubsidised bread prices are rising because of higher costs since the invasion of Ukraine…”

Meanwhile: “In the near term, food prices in world markets should be expected to rise further amidst all the uncertainty,” the Agricultural Market Information System said in a report, adding that “This will add to global food insecurity.”

Russia and Ukraine together accounted for nearly 29 per cent of global wheat exports last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as the conflict has jolted global wheat prices higher. (Chicago wheat futures climbed to 14-year highs of $11.34 a bushel and were up nearly 40 per cent earlier this month.)

On March 9, Reuters reported: “Ukraine’s Government has banned exports of rye, barley, buckwheat, millet, sugar, salt, and meat until the end of this year, according to a Cabinet resolution published on Wednesday.

But, on March 8, a Guardian article headlined, “How the U.S. ban on Russian oil risks splitting the West’s response,” noted that “Russia accounts for just seven per cent of the oil imported by the world’s biggest economy” and that while “three-fifths of Russia’s oil exports go to the EU, only eight per cent [goes] to the US.”

The article reported: “American motorists were already paying higher pump prices, even before the latest surge in the cost of Brent crude above $130 a barrel and, as the U.S. President admitted, they will soon be paying even more.”

Indeed, oil prices are up by over 70 per cent since January – and with no sign of them coming down anytime soon.

According to The Guardian article, “The Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy, has predicted a complete ban on Russian oil and gas could send crude prices to $200 a barrel. (The previous milestone was the $147-a-barrel peak reached in 2008.)”

But while it is claimed that the U.S. is not going it alone with its ban, other European countries clearly have misgivings – hardly surprising, as the EU gets 40 per cent of its gas and just over a quarter of its oil from Russia.

The Guardian article continued: “So, when Biden said the West remained united in its determination to keep the pressure on Russia, that is not strictly true.

“The EU, as the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz made clear 24 hours before the U.S. ban was announced, is worried about its energy security and has decided not to follow suit, for now at least.”

The article also revealed that “UK living standards are on course for their biggest one-year fall since modern records began in the mid-1950s, with the war in Ukraine putting at risk the post-pandemic recovery.”

“All of which,” the article says, “makes it important that sanctions work quickly.”

“The longer the economic war, the higher the cost,” the Guardian notes. But US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken kept warning all of last week that the crisis will indeed last long.

Larry Elliott (Economics editor), writing in The Guardian (also on 8 March 2022) reported: “The shockwaves from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will cut UK living standards by £2,500 per household, lead to more persistent inflationary pressure and slow the economy to a standstill next year, economists fear.”

Then on March 9, market observers noted that oil continued its rally near US$126 a barrel, after U.S. President Joe Biden said the U.S. would ban the import of Russian crude, escalating efforts to hobble the nation’s economy that will further strain global energy markets.

It was also reported – that same day — that Futures in New York had soared more than 35 per cent since the invasion of Ukraine almost two weeks earlier and had settled at the highest since 2008.

The UK said it would also phase out Russian crude imports by the end of the year; and Shell and BP reported they were halting new purchases.

But other European nations have been reluctant to commit to similar action.

The invasion has roiled commodity markets — from metals to grains — and sparked concerns that the global economy is heading for a shock, just as countries are emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Banks and traders were in fact predicting even higher crude prices and already, energy markets are being stretched, according to the reports.

But if anywhere, the cost of the effects of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is already estimated in the UK.

Larry Elliott (The Guardian Economics editor) writing on the same day (8 March), reported: “The shockwaves from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will cut UK living standards by £2,500 (US $5,000) per household, lead to more persistent inflationary pressure and slow the economy to a standstill next year, economists fear.”

Same across the Caribbean, where the cost of flour – a staple food — can be expected to rise and float, as with ‘Baking Powder’ treatment.

With CARICOM’s responsibility for issues relating to lowering the region’s food-import bill and helping revive Caribbean agriculture in ways that will ensure everything from economic sustainability to nutritional valuedand import substitution, the task ahead is even greater, thanks to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

But it’s also for each member-state to do what’s needed to ensure that the needed regional adjustments are done in tandem and not only according to what’s best within national boundaries.

Leadership will be offered and provided, but it’s always the speed of adjustment to new realities that decides just how fast necessary changes happen – again boiling down to what each nation wants for the entire region and how fast each government is prepared to look beyond its boundaries.

Time will tell – and sooner than later!