IN modern societies, if there is a belief in democratic principles, you will find political leaders regulating their behaviours to follow suit. Even if they do not believe in a strong democracy, they will appear so. They will do things that ‘kerfuffle’ their would-be competitors in society to satisfy their protestation. Foolishly, the bottom tier of the organisation feels that things are changing and happening in their interests. Sadly, the main protagonist of all the confusion is buying time, regrouping, and reassessing the situation to make a strong bid for political leadership again.

This development closely resembles the unpredictable behaviour of Mr. David Granger. The PNC went public about his absence only because of the nosy and relentless media. On Thursday, Mr. Granger took official leave from unexpectedly leading the PNC. Then the way was clear to have Chairman Volda Lawrence take control of the party indefinitely.

Many people are reporting that his health is acting up again. Others say that he wants to bow out of the mess and move gracefully into the next phase of life without the political baggage hanging around him like an albatross clinging to his neck.

Firstly, Mr. Granger has not relinquished the reigns of political power. Mr. Granger has not given up controlling the PNC and APNU+AFC Coalition. He will be the de facto head of all the mischievous activities but will not likely get pinpointed because of deniability. Also, if the leadership does not see this and buys into the arguments that Mr. Granger is busy taking care of his health, they would be foolish and guilty of exhibiting wishful thinking.

As a former President and Chief of Staff, Mr. Granger knows how to use skillful and deceptive strategies when combatting the enemy. He knows that it is abominable to leave the PNC Executive alone, at this time, at Congress Place. They will destroy themselves by infighting for the leadership which will be brutal and bitter.

Also, Mr. Granger closed the door on his chapter in politics like a true Burhnamite as Robert Corbin did when he stood down as leader back in 2010. Corbin was still active behind the scenes. Therefore, this exit strategy is likely to backfire. Tell the people the truth, tell them that you are bluffing and feeling out a way to come back to the centre of politics.

Secondly, with Granger away, the politicians will set Congress for November to elect a new leader. This move will be a new challenge for the ever-observant PPP. The political dynamic will change increasingly, but it will almost remain the same in certain respects. The APNU+AFC Coalition will be intertwined now more heavily in the PNC political artillery. PNC will become bolder and more shameful in its politics. The foot soldiers will start to march, protesting against this and that once again on the streets.

Thirdly, if this is a political ploy by Mr. Granger, Lawrence should know that everything she does will undergo questioning. She could still prove her political mettle. She will have a lot of Opposition and enemies during this transitional phase.

Lawrence has to watch Mr. Granger closely. It is not in his nature to cede leadership in this way. This move is a bluff. He was at the helm during the darkest period in modern Guyanese history. He does not know how to deal with matters of party politics.

Finally, the likelihood of PNC/APNU+AFC resurfacing from this state is almost sure. Whether or not the PNC will bounce back, but the fractionalised party bureaucracy will remain, it is still left to see whether the PNC/APNU+AFC opposition could engage the government in responsible politics and politics of development. They need to devise a new strategy moving forward without clinging to the race and discrimination banter. The writings on the wall are clear, and they speak of defeat at the hands of their worthy adversaries.