By Dr Zulfikar Bux
Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt Medical Center
THE new wave from the delta variant is shaking the world and it may have reached our shores. I will not be surprised if we soon get hit with another wave that causes a surge in infections.

However, we do have a decent vaccination rate and there is a good chance that we can ride the next wave if we increase our vaccine uptake in the next few weeks. The pandemic has shifted its focus to the unvaccinated and these are the persons that are mostly dying and getting serious infections. I still feel that we can shape the path of this virus by making wise choices. Today, I will share my thoughts on trajectory of this virus which depends so much on our choices.

The incoming wave affecting the unvaccinated mostly
I would have previously shared data which clearly shows that the unvaccinated are the ones that are being hospitalised and are dying from COVID-19. There are some persons that are even begging to be vaccinated while they are going through the devastating effects of the infection. Unfortunately, one cannot be vaccinated while one is actively infected and persons should not think that they will choose to get vaccinated when they get infected and be protected. COVID-19 vaccines only work to prevent infections or serious forms of infections and are of no benefit if given to someone when he/she gets infected. Unfortunately, there are still more persons that are unvaccinated than vaccinated. The virus which is now even more infectious, therefore still has a large population at its disposal to infect and cause unnecessary deaths and hospitalisations.

Children may become a target group
We are seeing a rise in infections and hospitalisations in children recently and this may be related to the newer strains affecting children more than previous ones. Unfortunately, children are not vaccinated as yet and may become prime suspects for the virus as this pandemic evolves. Our hope is that children will still fare better than adults given their robust immune response from their recent childhood vaccination for other diseases. This somehow seems to help them to respond more efficiently and effectively when exposed to COVID-19. However, this virus will elude some and the risk of causing devastating effects in some children is real. Until children are vaccinated against COVID-19, they will remain a high-risk group and the best way for us all to protect them in the meantime, is to maximize adult vaccinations so that there aren’t adults who can spread the infection to children.

The paths that this virus can take in 2021
It is simple, once countries can up their vaccination rate and get above 80% vaccination coverage before the year is out, they should be able to exit the pandemic. However, this is heavily dependent on vaccine resistant strains of the virus not forming. There is a decent chance of this happening given the high numbers of unvaccinated persons. If vaccine resistant strains do form, it can potentially send the world into another phase of the pandemic until scientists can make sufficient vaccines to combat them. However, when viruses mutate, they tend to become less deadly and I’m optimistic that this virus will weaken with time and be less deadly. This will either lead to a situation where it becomes seasonal and act similar to the flu or it is slowly wiped out as sufficient persons get vaccinated worldwide. In the meantime, we will have to ride this wave and hope that there are smaller spurts of infections in unvaccinated populations that are not sufficient to cause systemic collapse.

What can you do to prepare for a new wave?

I touched on this in last week’s article; the best way to prepare yourself is to practise the following measures:
* Get vaccinated ASAP
* Ensure your immune system is primed and as healthy as it can be
* Practise the 4Ds as much as possible
* Consult with your doctor to initiate treatment EARLY if you do get infected

Every time I look at the number of vaccinated persons, I am baffled why there are so many that choose to avoid vaccination against COVID-19. We are finally at a phase in the pandemic where we can shape our own destiny but yet we are allowing this opportunity to slowly slip from our grasp. Time waits for no one and this virus is similar in nature. Do not get left behind, get vaccinated and defeat COVID-19 before it defeats you!