Dear Editor,
THIS letter is a response to GHK Lall who sought to make a case for reversal of the clearance given by the COVID-19 National Task Force – for limited public indoor dining. In his missive carried in the Stabroek News edition of January 17,2021, GHK Lall attempted to heavily criticise the Minister of Health for this move.

Lall is largely basing his argument on the 500 cases detected when schoolchildren were tested. While Lall’s concern is not be swept under the rug, the decision to gradually reopen the economy in general is also necessary and calculated.

Guyana has been beaten down with five months of political turmoil in 2020. This, coupled with the pandemic, the economic and financial impacts as a result, were devastating to the hospitality and restaurant industry in particular. Many persons working in the industry became unemployed. It is almost 10 months now since the owners of those businesses, the employees and the families who depended on the employment of those businesses, have been out of business and unemployed. The sufferings and hardships, therefore, are unimaginable and this is not an overstatement.

Let’s put this into perspective: there are over 100 restaurants in Guyana. Let’s assume that each restaurant employs an average of 15 persons and pays an average salary of $60,000; this is a total of 1500 employees with total average monthly income of $90 million and loss of income distribution of over $1 billion annually. Put differently, we can safely say that more than1500 households have been affected and suffered income loss of over $1 billion for the period. Then there is also the supply chain: the suppliers who supply the restaurants with goods and services that were affected owing to their closure – again, the chain effect on the loss of income and jobs.

Globally, the restaurant industry has been severely affected. Countries are also taking steps to reopen their economies safely and that includes the restaurant business.

Countries Cases – Cumulative total Cases – newly reported in last 24 hrs Deaths -Cumulative total Deaths – newly reported in last 24 hrs Barbados 1,036 – 7 – Brazil 8,393,492 69,198 208,246 1,151 Canada 695,707 6,816 17,729 191 Guyana 6,805 60 170 – Jamaica 14,096 104 323 – Suriname 7,409 109 139 – Trinidad & Tobago 7,343 23 130 – United Kingdom 3,357,365 41,342 88,590 1,295 United States 23,344,423 246,485 389,084 12,893 Venezuela 118,856 441 1,095 5 Global 49,578,590 441,696 1,245,717 6,037 Source: Extracted from World Health Organization, COVID-19 Dash Boar
% of deaths to total cases % Relative to Global Cases % Relative to Global Deaths % of Total Cases to Population Total Population Barbados 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.36 286,641 Brazil 2.48 16.93 47.15 4.02 209,000,000 Canada 2.55 1.40 4.01 1.88 37,000,000 Guyana 2.50 0.01 0.04 0.91 750,000 Jamaica 2.29 0.03 0.07 0.48 2,935,000 Suriname 1.88 0.01 0.03 1.29 576,000 Trinidad& Tobago 1.77 0.01 0.03 0.56 1,300,000 United Kingdom 2.64 6.77 20.06 5.09 66,000,000 United States 1.67 47.09 88.09 7.12 328,000,000 Venezuela 0.92 0.24 0.25 0.41 29,000,000 Global 2.51     0.71 7,000,000,000 Source: Extracted from World Health Organization, COVID-19 Dash Board
Editor, from looking at the above data, Guyana’s total COVID cases relative to the total population of the country is less than one percent, which is well below the average of 10 selected countries of 4.6%. Particularly, Guyana is well below countries such as Brazil with 4.02%; Suriname – ½%; the United Kingdom – 5.09%; Canada – 1.88%; and the United States – 7.12%. Hence, from this perspective, the pandemic situation in Guyana is not extremely bad per se – in comparison to other countries, regionally and globally.

One has to acknowledge that the pandemic impact is two-fold – that is, it is a health pandemic which has financial and economic repercussions which could also lead to the same social consequences in our society to that of economic depression at the household level; this can also be devastating. Therefore, it is imperative for policymakers not only in Guyana, but globally, to find ways to safely reopen the economy for business as the hard reality is such that the world now has to co-exist with the pandemic. The pandemic is not going anywhere anytime soon. So, should we stay in lockdown forever? Can we afford to be in lockdown forever? The answer is no.

Further to note, before I authored this piece, I did some homework. In this regard, the Guyana Tourism Authority (GTA) and the Tourism and Hospitality Association of Guyana (THAG) had strongly lobbied the Task Force for reopening of restaurants for months now against the aforesaid backdrop. However, before this request was approved, both agencies had to assure and convince the Task Force that they have developed due safety protocols to facilitate such reopening. These protocols were then subject to the approval of the COVID-19 Task Force before such decision was taken. As such, it was not an ad hoc or careless decision to allow 40% indoor dining by the Task Force. Further, the GTA and THAG were tasked with the responsibility to ensure compliance with the approved COVID-19 safety protocols.

Editor, to sum this up, indeed one has to appreciate that the decision to safely reopen the restaurants and the economy generally is not an easy task. Yet, at the same time, such decision must be made, must be calculated and take into consideration the other important factors such as the economic and financial impact on households where over 1500 persons lost their jobs and over 100 restaurants risk going out of business. This, as I have shown with a simple scenario, can cost households over $1 billion and the ripple effect can be equally devastating as well, where families who are not earning would be unable to pay their bills, feed their families, pay their mortgages – just to list a few examples of the consequences.

Permit me to conclude, therefore, by saying – commentators such as GHK Lall should not critique for the sake of critiquing; rather, constructive critiques focused on solutions for these complex issues will be much more helpful and in the interest of all stakeholders going forward. Lall in all his ramblings failed to proffer any solution whatsoever. The solutions that we need to focus on are to first acknowledge the new reality of the world that the pandemic has induced and help policymakers develop sustainable and safe ways and all other stakeholders need to change the way we conduct business and conduct our lives generally. There are many global institutions, universities and think tanks already focusing on these respects to develop sustainable and safe ways to coexist in a COVID environment.

For readers who are interested, JB Consultancy took compiled a proposed strategy to safely help the Tourism sector to recover. https://jbconsultancy.info/a-recovery-strategy-for-the-tourism-sector/.

Yours Faithfully,
JC. Bhagwandin
Principal Consultant/ Financial Analyst
JB Consultancy & Associates