Dear Editor,
GUYANESE I conversed with are overwhelmingly in favour of impeachment of Donald Trump. There are also Trump supporters among Guyanese, but as commented upon in the media, there appears to be some misunderstanding of the concept of impeachment of President Donald Trump. Most Guyanese I spoke with in Guyana and in the diaspora don’t really understand the concept of impeachment according to the U.S. constitution. They are of the mistaken belief that impeachment equals the removal from office. Many Americans of other ethnicities also hold the same belief. A clarification of the meaning of the concept of impeachment is warranted. Impeachment is not removal from office. I happened to have studied U.S. constitutional law when I was doing a PhD in political Science and MS in Education Administration. Studying Constitutional Law was mandatory for both disciplines. Doctoral exams also have questions on Constitutional Law. Thus, I have knowledge of the process.

Trump was impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday. His trial goes to the Senate for a hearing and a verdict. If found guilty he will be removed from office. The standards for a guilty verdict are very high, almost impossible to achieve. No American President was ever found guilty and removed from office.

Will President Trump be found guilty?

A guilty verdict means immediate removal from office. With only a few days remaining in his four-year term, it is the analysis of this writer that the answer, in all likelihood, to the question of removal from office is “no” – he will finish his term on Wednesday morning and fly out to Miami — as is the norm of previous Presidents. They fly out to their home state (of their choice on a last flight of Air Force One). Obama had flown to Hawaii; his home state was Illinois, although he was born in and had lived in Hawaii

Impeachment simply means an equivalent of an indictment in a court. It means an allegation or a charge was made against the President. The House examined all the evidence of the charge and a discussion was held. That was followed by a vote among the 435 elected members of the lower house. A simple majority vote was needed for an indictment; some 232 members voted for impeachment. The matter is sent to the Senate where a trial will take place.  A conviction requires a ‘yes’ vote by 67 members (two-thirds majority) of only the elected 100 members of the upper house. That is a most difficult task. No American President was ever convicted (removed from office).
Trump is the only President in the history of the U.S. to be impeached more than once. He was impeached last year, but was not convicted and thus has remained in office. That vote took place along partisan lines – Democrats voted to impeach and remove him from office, while Republicans voted to exonerate him. The Democrats had the majority and voted to impeach him. The current impeachment charges Trump for “high crimes and misdemeanours,” and for “inciting violence against the Government of the United States.” A dozen Republicans voted to impeach Trump this week along with Democrats.

What happens next? It is not clear if the matter will be brought up for a trial. The clock is running and the Senate may run out of time. A trial and a vote must be held before Tuesday, Trump’s last full day in office. Given the limited time, with a trial taking at least two days, the Senate may ignore the process. For a trial to take place, the Majority leader of the Senate has to schedule the hearing. Currently, it is Republican Mitch McConnell. He may not want to touch the matter fearing the political fallout for himself and his party. He may simply ignore the request for a trial, saying time does not allow for it or find some other delaying process. This leads to a natural death of the impeachment once President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in on Wednesday morning. All incomplete matters of the preceding administration are dead.

McConnell has been silent on his plan. McConnell’s majority leadership comes to an end after the swearing in of the next Vice-President on Wednesday. The Senate is tied 50-50. The Vice-President, who is ‘the Chair’ of the Senate casts a tie-breaking vote. The Republican Mike Pence is the VP till Tuesday and will side with Republicans. Kamala Harris, a Democrat, will hold that position from January 21.

Currently, all the Democrats (50) plan to vote for conviction. Ten Republican Senators plan to support the move to expel Trump from the presidency. The indictment is short of seven votes for a conviction. Two other Republicans may support the vote. Five more Senators would be needed to remove Trump from office. If the vote is successful, the Vice-President is sworn in as the next President. That would be Mike Pence. He would inherit all the perks of office, including a hefty $200K annual pension and security just for being President for a few days or even a day.

McConnell will decide Trump’s faith. In all likelihood, he will not schedule a trial and will let the clock run out. He could also hold a debate, but don’t schedule a vote. He has that power to block a vote.

Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram (Political Scientist)