Dear Editor,

THE United States is in a state of transition, which will be formalised on January 20, 2021. Even though President Donald Trump is still putting up some rearguard resistance and continuing to claim that the elections were rigged, the writing is on the wall; he will go on January 20, 2021. In previous changeovers, not much in the way of policies were changed. There were various emphases in one direction or the other, but, generally, they were all continuation from one to the other. This time there will be some noticeable changes. For whatever else you may say about Trump, no one could be indifferent to him and his administration. Most people either dislike him so much that they cannot see anything good in what he did or tried to do. On the other hand, there are some who so appreciate him that they would hear nothing negative about him. To them he was/is a real hero. Those extremes would never capture the true nature of his administration. The change, therefore, promises both positive and negative developments in the Biden-Harris era. The first positive aspect of Joe Biden’s presidency would be on how he handles the pandemic that has taken almost 300,000 American lives. In this area, he will score big, since his line of taking the advice of the scientists is the only correct one.
Biden has also signalled that he would re-engage the international community and fight the COVID with a united front. That is, of course, the most sensible thing to do. After all, as has been said before, an international issue needs an international response. The President-elect has already assured the WHO of the re-engagement and re-instating of US contributions to that organisation.

The new administration will give the Climate Change phenomena the urgency and attention that it needs; this is the most important issue in our world today. No rational human being doubts the fact that our world’s climate is changing very fast. Sea ice at the poles of the world is melting; sea levels are rising, and the weather is extremely erratic. Natural disasters are multiplying and becoming more intense. Forest fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes are happening almost every day in our world. The Trump administration has set us back a very far way because of his own refusal to believe that it is real. Biden will be better for the world on this score. The question, though, is: Will he be able to solve it if he continues to put profit before planet. That is the issue.
Another important area where I believe that Joe Biden will be a breath of fresh air would be on the trade issues with China. The view is that the next President of the US will appreciate more the harm that is being done to the international economy by the unfortunate hostility that Trump generated against China. He has blamed the PRC for almost everything that is wrong with the world. His attitude to China would impact negatively on International Trade and on all of us. The old saying when two elephants fight the grass suffers. Biden may meet resistance in normalising relations with China from hawks in the State apparatus that want to make China another enemy.

There are other issues that are more difficult to make changes, but I think that the incoming administration would do a better job. Whether it could reverse all the negatives is debatable; maybe they don’t have the political will to do so. For instance, the harm that the Trump Government has done to the Palestinian cause by moving the US embassy to Jerusalem may not be so easy to reverse. Moreover, the attempts to isolate the Palestinian resistance by using its enormous influence to get Arab States to recognise Israel would be very hard to turn back. Indeed, Biden may be pressured to continue on that course. The Trump Government’s viciousness against the Palestinian people has no precedence that could be thought of. Under Trump, the US became Israel’s battering ram. Israel has become a real rogue apartheid state, but it has the support of the US, and a cloak of decency. The Trump regime’s withdrawal from the Iran deal, and its reimposed sanctions pose another thorny issue that will confront the Biden Government. It is clear that this was not only Trump’s position, but many high in the US administration agreed with him. This, therefore, may cause some problems for Biden. However, he would get counter pressure from US European allies that, if strong enough, may enable him to return to the agreement that was reached during Obama’s tenure. While there are many other burning international problems, I would only mention one more here: Cuba. The Obama-Biden administration had adopted a new approach to Cuba; this was to engage the Cuban government, and as far as possible to normalise relations. This was a new approach to fighting Cuba. Obama was looking to influence mass consciousness in Cuba.

However, the easing of tensions did bring relief to the people of that country who had endured tremendous hardships caused by the US blockade. Unfortunately, the Trump regime had returned to the old, crude ways of attacking Cuba. The blockade was re-introduced with a vengeance; once more, the Cuban people are hurting. The hope is that Biden would reverse these measures, and allow the Caribbean to be a zone of peace. Obama was moving to remove the US as what he feels, the excuse, which the Cubans used to explain the hardships in that country. Having pointed to the areas where we may expect some positive changes, let us now turn to areas that could be negative, with serious consequences. The first, and probably most important, is the US-Russia relations. From the point of view of international security, this is, without doubt, the most important relation. Trump showed real signs of wanting to improve and even normalise relations with Russia. The policy made a great deal of sense, since those two countries are in possession of huge amounts of nuclear weapons. Any clash between these two could put all forms of life on earth in jeopardy. That is why normalising relations between the two nuclear powers is good for the entire world. It is true that Russia is not the Soviet Union. The collapse of the USSR has weakened it greatly, however, it has recovered considerably, and its military capacity is still enormous. Trump had to back away from his intentions to improve relations, because of the tremendous and sustained attacks that he got from the media. The CNN and MSNBC were relentless; they were not only hostile, but derogatory and scandalous.

The intention of Trump also gave us a glimpse at the power in the US. The State agencies, the CIA and FBI, worked against him on this matter; they fuelled the media about so-called Russian interference in the US elections. Trump developed deep suspicions of those State agencies; he even harboured some hostilities towards them. The Russian interference appears to have been a cruel hoax; not a shred of evidence was ever put forward, but Trump was almost crucified. The big corporations turned away from him on this issue as well, as was seen in the contribution to the two parties at the 2020 elections. The Democrats were able to raise far more funds than the Republicans. The main reason was to keep Russia in the minds of the American people as the Enemy. This was not so difficult to do, taking into consideration the decades of anti-communist, anti-Soviet propaganda that the people of the US were fed. The main reason was to maintain an enemy to justify the massive military spending to further enrich the 0.1% of the population. It is apposite here to remember President Dwight Eisenhower, who, in his final address to the American people in 1961, warned them of the growing power of what he called “the military industrial complex”. He was right. The military industrial complex is linked to almost every aspect of the US economy, including the mass media. It has indeed become the dominant force in the State.

Here I believe Biden will fall in line with the CIA, FBI and the many other bodies dealing with security; he will not buck them in the interest of world peace. Another area that Trump tried to deal with, which has great consequences in the world, was to reduce the US military presence overseas. He came under great pressure not only within the US, but the NATO bureaucrats who enjoy huge benefits also joined in opposition to that move.  Had he succeeded in withdrawing the troops, it would have eased tensions in the world, and created better conditions for political dialogue agreements and peace. Moreover, let’s face it, the US military intervention in various parts of the world did not bring the promised freedom and abundance. On the contrary, it created great misery for ordinary people. Since the invasion of Iraq, insecurity, economic decline, violence and great human sufferings have become the norm. The same could be said of Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.  The US is the main supplier and supporter of Saudi Arabia, which is bombing Yemen back into the Stone Age. The humanitarian situation is probably the worst in the world. The very CIA had suggested that the Crown Prince was involved in the murder of Khashoggi, a Saudi-born journalist. Therefore, Trump’s attempts to remove troops from abroad and reduce tensions with Russia have to be judged positively. From all indications, Joe Biden would return to policies that please the powerful corporations, and the huge and very powerful state apparatus that determines things in the US.

He has already signalled this in the composition of his new government, moreso those he has left out. Senator Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren cannot find a place in Biden’s Cabinet, because of the opposition of the right wing in the Democratic Party that is doing all it in can to replace the Republican Party as the darling of the 0.1%. The politics of those two senators would have impacted on foreign policy as well; that may have been inconvenient for Biden. The world is holding its breath as we live through this transition. Will it usher in an era of peace and tranquillity, or will we be tormented by more wars and sufferings that accompany them? Time will tell. One good silver lining is the growing participation of masses of people in the life of the US; people who are growing tired of ‘socialism for the rich’, while the vast majority continue to wait for a trickle down.  The transition is almost upon us; we would not have to wait too long for some answers.

Sincerely,
Cheddi Jagan Research Centre