Dear editor,

BECAUSE I write voluminously on US events as related to the diasporas of Guyana, the Caribbean and India, I have been approached by groups and media in India and the Caribbean for my views on the outcome of the US elections. Guyanese, other Caribbean and Indian Americans have been querying me who will win the US Presidency in this coming Tuesday’s general elections? (America is divided by ethnicity with each group (hundreds of them) championing its own ethnic or diaspora or national interests. So it is not unusual for group members to rally around a candidate or party that they feel is best for them). Guyanese in Guyana and in other parts of the diaspora also contacted me for my view on the elections. Some also ask what is the implication of the outcome and which candidate is better for US-Guyana relations, US-Caribbean, and US-India relations? I appeared on several webinars over the last couple weeks to answer those questions. Although I studied political science and taught US politics for some 25 years, prior to which I taught international relations, does not mean my views are ‘correct’. There is no correct view. It is only an informed viewpoint based on analysis or a study.
In addition to the presidential contest, there are also elections to Congress and to statewide and local offices all over the US. One needs be informed that the President alone does not determine foreign policy. He makes, shapes, and guides foreign policy (FP). But Congress, the Senate in particular, also plays a major role in FP. Congress provides funding to the President to effect America’s foreign policy. Thus, those interested in US politics (elections) need to also pay attention to the Congressional contests.  And one cannot give a non-partisan analysis without examining the issues and their significance in how people vote. Domestic issues also play a role in how people vote.

The issues in the US elections centre on COVID-19 response, unemployment, ethnic relations, immigration, economy, foreign aid, international relations, criminal justice, healthcare, climate change, abortion, and gun policy, among others. In some matters, voters rank Trump as better equipped to handle them and in others Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, gets the nod. Biden leads in Foreign Policy. A majority of Americans tell researchers that Foreign Policy is very important in this election. But so is the pocket book issue that is always very important in an election. People vote based on how well they do financially and who will put more money in their pockets as well as protect their community. And they are not doing financially well, no fault of incumbent Donald Trump, a Republican. COVID-19 has affected the economy. Trump may pay a hefty price for their shrinking pocket.

How are Indo-Caribbeans (Indo-Guyanese) voting? There are no polls among Guyanese or Caribbean people. But based on my estimates of people I conversed with and interviewed, a surprising 25 per cent will vote for Trump. An opinion poll conducted among Indian Americans by a group of scholars revealed that some 28 per cent are voting for Trump. My own interaction among Indo-Caribbeans and Indian Americans finds that in this election, there is also a higher voter turnout among both groups than in previous elections. Afro-Guyanese and Afro-Caribbean turnout and voting trend is in line with that of Black Americans.  Some 93 per cent are voting Biden. I have not come across many Afro-Guyanese or Black Americans who say they are voting for Trump. But a significant number of evangelical Black Americans, as indeed most White evangelicals, are voting for Trump. The base of Trump’s support is White Americans. But he also gets a significant portion of Hispanic and Asian votes.

Indian Americans who vote Trump do so because of threat of terror against India, lower taxation policy, and perceived threat posed to India by China and Pakistan. US and India have become very close partners under Trump to counter China’s threat in Asia and the Pacific, and Indian Americans as well as Indo-Guyanese feel Trump is best for US-India relations. (Many Guyanese do follow issues in their ancestral homeland, India).  Indo-Guyanese who vote Trump say they do so because Republicans tend to protect democracy (free and fair elections) in Guyana. They point to the Democrats ousting the PPP governments in 1964 and 2015 and Secretary Pompeo, a Republican, saving democracy in Guyana.

I did an analysis of dozens of polls conducted on the elections. I objectively conclude that Biden will win a landslide in the electoral votes and also obtain majority of popular votes. The electoral votes matter. A candidate needs 270 of the 538 votes. Biden is projected to get over 300 votes. My analysis of the polls also finds that Democrats will capture the Senate and improve their hold on the House. I must confess that the polls were wrong in 2016 – showing a Trump defeat. So it is possible the polls could be wrong again. The contest in the swing or battleground states is close even though polls have Biden ahead.

In terms of foreign policy implications for Guyana or the Caribbean or India, it would not matter much whichever candidate prevails on Tuesday except for immigration policy. Biden will reverse the restriction of Trump on US immigration. He will probably also provide more development foreign aid to poor countries of the Caribbean and Africa. He will increase COVID-19 Assistance. But American investment, securing democracy, geo-strategic security interests would remain the same relating to Guyana, Caribbean and India. Guyana will remain under US watch geo-strategic interests vis-a-vis Venezuela.
Separately, in Richmond Hill, Little Guyana, Jennifer Rajkumar is on the ballot for State Assembly. Guyanese and other American voters are urged to vote for her and for candidates they feel will best represent their concerns in government.

Yours truly,
Dr. Vishnu Bisram