Here in Trinidad, I was asked to journal bits and pieces of my thoughts, feelings, and experiences as a foreign student confined to the Twin Island Republic during this COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this was to provide insight into what it has been like adapting to the unfolding events of the ‘new normal’.

My work has largely scaled-down since I can only work from my bedroom. The same goes for my academic pursuits- no longer any I am readily able to engage with my lecturers as fluidly as I would like. My trips to the grocery store have to be planned days in advance, and planned alongside dozens of other students, in ways that would maximise efficiency and minimise our exposure to the outside world. While I sat down for most of the past two weeks journalling (or, attempting to journal, I should say) more and more about these experiences, I thought about the ripple effect of all the new normals that are ensuing.

In the news this past week, the World Health Organisation (WHO) highlighted that it was looking into crafting advice for countries so that the pervasive ‘lockdown measures’ could be reduced and that productivity could begin resuming, incrementally. Importantly, this was not due to any belief that the threat of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19 was diminishing, but rather, it is a measure of facilitating this new normal that is ensuing.

Basic measures such as physical distancing and handwashing will be enforced even if (or when) lockdowns are lifted. Moreover, the increased capacity at health systems will also need to be maintained once restrictions are eased.

On a macro scale, the ‘new normal’ refers to how the global landscape has changed (and continues to change), because of the litany of implications resulting from the pandemic. There is an inherent interplay between the effects of COVID-19 and all sectors of society, from the economy (society’s “base”) to our social institutions. The negative economic impact caused by the loss of productivity and employment will runoff into these sectors.

In this vein too, the new normal might very well involve the continuous adjustments of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic activity, or from the looks of things, offset the heavy impact of the loss of economic activity.

Already, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has said that more than four out of five people, or 81 percent of the global workforce, are currently affected by full or partial workplace closures and that global unemployment during 2020 will depend substantially on future developments and policy measures. These policy measures will include an increase in government spending, a reduction in taxes, adjustments in the interest rates to encourage investments or alike. Recall, here in Guyana, Value Added Tax (VAT) has been temporarily removed from water and electricity

Guyana also implemented sweeping measures to stymie the spread of the virus, including closing two major airports to international traffic and restricting all public gatherings. Local travel has also been substantially curtailed. These have all had an impact on persons’ livelihoods, outside of the already heavy direct social impacts.

Even so, a sigh of some relief could be breathed as the government committed to continue paying public sector employees their salaries and providing old-age pensions in full. But while these fiscal and monetary measures and the forthcoming economic stimulus package (whatever form it may take) are governmental decisions taken to help ease the burden of the new normal on the average citizen, this may not happen the same for private-sector employees and those in the more informal employment sectors.

Now unlike other countries, Guyana has two other tenets to navigate. The first is that even in light of the impact of COVID-19, Guyana’s economy is still projected to grow. This growth, ceteris paribus, is currently pegged at 51.7 percent. However, what threatens this is, as outlined before, the ramifications of COVID-19- which in this specific case has also led to declining oil prices, and unique to Guyana, the incomplete election processes.

Months ago, Guyana’s new normal could have potentially been economic growth marked by tangible developments in the country. Now, this ‘destiny’ is in limbo, because of COVID-19 and the post-election quagmire.

I cannot clearly envision a new normal for Guyana that is void of hardship. Local economist Rawle Lucas highlighted that Guyana was not heavily impacted by the global downturn in 2008 because the demand for gold went up, and Guyana was a producer of this commodity. This time around, a major recession looms and the most vulnerable groups in our society will be disproportionately affected.

Therefore, Guyana must resolve this current political impasse as best as possible so that the government may be able to employ those same fiscal and monetary measures, along with an effective economic package to help safeguard these vulnerable groups. The new normal is unfolding right in front of our eyes and new steps need to be taken to channel this appropriately.