Dear Editor,
THE coalition’s victory in 2015 came as a result of an over-performance is Region Four. The ruling APNU+AFC coalition amassed an impressive 110,000 votes and the PPP/C 70,000 — a difference of 40,000– catapulting it into Office, supplanting the PPP/C after 23 long years.

The coalition knew that facing a resurging PPP/C in 2020 would require another over-performance in Region Four. This was no secret; the coalition campaigned confidently of getting 36 to 40 seats, possibly by gaining Amerindian support in Regions One, Two, Seven, Eight and Nine, where they would pick up a + 2 seats and Region Four, where it would get enough votes to pick up to two seats nationally. We know how that turned out.
The campaign strategy played out before our eyes.

House-to-House Registration
The coalition used this exercise to maximise the number of electors in this region. While Bharrat Jagdeo, who it seemed was convinced that whoever took over the GECOM Chair will end the exercise and not incorporate the data into the existing database. And indeed it was truncated, but much to his chagrin the chair ruled that the data will be used in compiling the voter’s list.

Changes to GECOM’s National Register of Registrants database were dominated by Region Four. Thousands of Afro and mixed-race Guyanese in Region Four had turned 18 during the years 2015 and 2019, at rates faster than any other ethnic group. A mom recently told me, albeit jokingly, that “we stopped doing abortions.” In fact, abortions may not have been an option as lack of access to reproductive healthcare didn’t provide for abortions as options for many in the middle to late 1990s.

Mr Editor, Jagdeo’s PPP/C left many of these Black women in poverty. Poor Black women in the mid to late 1990s did what poor East Indians did in 1970s and 1980s–they made lots of children. Herein lies a demographic transition problem for the PPP/C in 2020. East Indians, its traditional voting block, came out of poverty at the rates faster than any other ethnic group and as they attained middle and upper- class status stopped having plenty children. You need not be a demographer to realise that East Indians have one of the lowest fertility rates in Guyana when compared to other ethnic groups. I can extrapolate that for every One hundred Black/Mixed/ Amerindian that turned 18 in 2015 to 2019, there were less than 30 East Indians.

A check of the Official list of Electors dated February 1 revealed this transition problem and benefit for the PPP/C and APNU+AFC, respectively. Areas dominated by Afro, mixed-race and Amerindians had significantly more new electors than areas populated by East Indians. The coalition, realising that it will need these voters to face a resurging PPP/C took every measure possible to ensure the thousands who turned 18 yrs between 2015 and 2019 made it on the list. I must add that I’m sure measures to achieve this effect were in placed way before the HTH registration.

What the house-to-house exercise also achieved was to limit the number of people who were displaced. With 88000+ changes to the NRR and Region Four having dominated the HTH exercise, one can see why the coalition most reliable region was set to deliver a massive turnout. Its supporters were on the list and those previously displaced were now in-place and ready!

GECOM’S decision to limit the use of private residences as polling stations was a blow to the PPP/C’s usual nefarious polling day activities. While we know this decision wasn’t going to limit “real” turnouts in their strongholds, we knew it was going to limit the possibilities of jiggery-pokery that goes on at residential polling stations. My projected figure for the PPP/C’s performance in Region Four in 2020 was on point at about 78,000. My model factored in higher turnouts in their strongholds, returning AFC supporters on the East Coast, migration to USA and Canada (legally and illegally) and also the limitation of nefarious polling day bottom house activities.

Mr Editor, it is ludicrous for the PPP/C to try to convince Guyanese that it has won 42% of the votes in Region Four having been beaten to 38% and 37% in 2011 and 2015, respectively. It is absurd that the PPP/C’s statements of poll can show the coalition only attaining 112000 votes. Only graduates of the University of Uitvlugt will buy this nonsense.
Region Four was set to deliver a decisive blow to the PPP/C. The foundation for this blow was set nearly 20 years ago under Bharrat Jagdeo’s regime. Jagdeo’s unwanted babies grew up.
Regards
AUSTIN FRASER