– according to T&T economist

TRINIDADIAN economist, Dr. Roger Hosein, has said the rapid pace of development of Guyana’s oil and gas industry was a sound economic decision, providing that all standards and the requisite criteria were met.

The economist, who is a senior lecturer of Economics at the University of the West Indies (UWI), shared his views during a recent interview with Guyana Chronicle.

“As long as all of the processes were followed properly, it is best to monetise the asset while it is discovered… I commend Guyana and Exxon for that acceleration of the process, once all standards and criteria were adequately met,” he said.

Dr. Hosein is no stranger to Guyana’s developing petroleum industry.

Over the past few years, he has made several presentations in Guyana, where he outlined projections for Guyana’s economic growth and cautioned that Guyana should not neglect certain key areas, such as its non-energy sector.

In July 2018, he also co-authored an Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) publication titled: “The Dutch Disease Phenomenon and Lessons for Guyana: Trinidad and Tobago’s Experience”.

In January of this year, Oil and Gas Adviser to the Department of Energy, Matthew Wilks, highlighted that the pace of development within Guyana’s Oil and Gas industry is “unprecedented” worldwide – in spite of claims of lacklustre development in the sector.

Wilks made these statements at an open youth forum where he addressed a myriad of questions young people had about the developing petroleum sector. At this forum, too, Director of the Department of Energy, Dr. Mark Bynoe, was also present.

Here, Dr. Bynoe reminded that Exxon ‘struck oil’ in 2015 and Guyana is taking only five years from exploration to production, an unprecedented achievement.

This unprecedented pace of development was further accelerated when the production of the commercial crude historically began on December 20, 2019, in the Liza-1 field of the Stabroek Block, months ahead of the March 2020 timeline.

The output from the first phase is expected to reach capacity of 120,000 gross barrels of oil per day (bdp), utilising the Liza Destiny floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, and the first cargo is set to be sold within several weeks. The Stabroek Block is expected to produce 750,000 bpd by 2025.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that Guyana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow 86 per cent in 2020 but cautioned that this forecast may be subject to large revisions, where even small changes to the projected oil output in 2020 could potentially result in major changes in the overall economic performance.

A recent World Oil report, however, noted that with these current projected operation outcomes, “Guyana, with a population of less than 800,000, may end up producing more crude per person than any other country in the world.”

This means, ceteris paribus, Guyana may be one of the richer countries in the world, on a per capita basis.

The current estimated discovered recoverable resources from the Stabroek Block is more than six billion oil equivalent barrels. By 2025, it is expected that Guyana will produce at least 750,000 barrels a day.