— in city alone by 2050, says study

THE Central Housing and Planning Authority (CH&PA) has been presented with a Climate Resilience Support Study to significantly improve the implementation of its Adequate Housing and Urban Accessibility Programme (AHUAP).

The study was completed in partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and was launched on Tuesday at Cara Lodge.

It will serve to benefit the AHUAP as it aims to provide access to adequate housing and basic infrastructure for low-income populations and future urban planning and development in Guyana.

Presenting an overview and key finding of the project, Lead Consultant at VIVID Economics, Charlie Dixon said the study determines how the capital city is likely to be affected by climate change over the coming years and possible mitigation options.

The report zeroed in on three focus areas which included a climate change mitigation assessment; a disaster risk and climate change vulnerability assessment and an urban growth study.

From the mitigation assessment, an assessment of Georgetown’s greenhouse gases emission on a city-scale was garnered for the first time.
It showed that in 2016, the city was responsible for some 900 kilotons (kt) of Carbon dioxide (CO2).

In the next 20 years (2040), with an expected population increase, this figure can rise to some 1,200kt driven through an increase in energy demand from the transport and residential sector.

To avoid this, the report detailed mitigation measures such as an increase in the number of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) on roofs, particularly on private businesses; installation of additional Light-Emitting Diodes (LEDs) lights and the optimisation of public transport by moving away from mini-busses to larger busses.

LOW COST
“When we did a cost analysis of these actions, a number of mitigation options, in the long-term, and over this 20 year timeframe, it actually comes out negative or very low cost. Negative cost actions essentially mean that the money that you save day-to-day in your operational spending actually outweighs any of the initial investment that you have to make up front,” Dixon explained.

Meanwhile, the vulnerability assessment component provides quantitative assessment of areas around Georgetown which are mostly affected by flooding and the likely scale of damage that can be produced in the future.

It showed that while it costs Guyana some G$1.3B yearly to address the issue of flooding, continuing with the current strategy, Guyana will be spending some G$4.2B in 2050.
Dixon noted that the number is estimated to increase significantly, while the same level of flooding may occur and with a rise in population and businesses in the city, greater losses would occur.

The report recommends adaptation measures such as spatial planning away from high-risk areas; rehabilitation of the sea defence along the coast and the construction of defences along the Demerara River; the expansion of mangrove conservation and sediment control structures; and improving and expanding the drainage system in Georgetown.

“If we can think about these investments upfront and early in a strategic way, the reduction you get in terms of expected damage, the economic benefit later on are very, very large and important,” Dixon commented.

The third component, the urban growth study, provided an up-to-date and detailed understanding of how land has been used in Georgetown in the past and how it ought to be utilised in the future for maximum benefit.

It found that from the year 2000 to now, the urban footprint of Georgetown has grown by over 140 per cent from 700 to 1,600 hectares.

DOUBLE
By 2040, it is expected that land use in Guyana will double and, as such, the report once again recommended spatial planning as well as denitrification by increasing the proximity or height of buildings in some areas.

Delivering remarks on the report, CH&PA Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Lelon Saul, indicated the commitment of the authority, and the government by extension, to finding long-term housing solutions for Guyanese.

He described the engagement with the IDB as invaluable and one which will allow the authority to improve its delivery of services.

“As we develop new settlements, sustain and preserve existing villages and towns, we must be aware of the impact of climate change for it presents the single biggest threat to development,” Saul said.

He added: “Given the threat posed by climate change, we are compelled to build capacity and access finance and technical support in order to combat these threats. The Climate Resilience Support for Adequate Housing and Urban Accessibility Programme will enable us to strengthen resilience and adapt a capacity to address climate-related hazard and natural disasters in Georgetown and its environs.”

The CEO stated that he is confident that the studies will facilitate the adopting and implementation of integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resources efficiency, mitigation, adaptation to climate change and resilience to disasters.

Speaking too was Chief of Operations at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Lorena Solorzano, who highlighted that the same methodology utilised in the report has been applied by over 70 cities and they are experiencing positive changes.

She thanked the CH&PA for its openness to adapt the recommended mitigation measures.
Chief Development Planner at the CH&PA, Germene Stewart, reminded that the information will not only be useful to the authority, but to other government agencies specialising in the environment and land use.