–for usually wet May-June period next year

THE Guyana Hydrometeorological Office has predicted that the El Niño months of May to July next year will see below-normal rainfall.
Specialist Meteorologist, Komalchand Dhiram says that although the ‘Met Office’ found it difficult to forecast the weather during the corresponding period this year, persons can expect less than normal rainfall during the traditional rainy May-June season come next year.

“Extreme wet spells remain possible through January; there is not much concern in coastal Guyana,” he said.
“People could expect a week of moderate El Niño; wet days and wet spells will become less frequent towards February,” he told participants at the Fifth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) at the Herdmanston Lodge on Friday.

And neither will heat stress be a problem during the period at reference, Dhiram said, as the cool season will start to build up from March.
Recalling the devastation brought by recent flooding in Regions Nine (Upper Takutu-Upper Essequibo) and Ten (Upper Demerara-Upper Berbice), Dhiram said that going forward, the ‘Met Office’, with the help of data from the forum, will be in a better position to make more accurate forecasts by working together with key stakeholders.

The success of the NCOF, he said, will enable them to enhance and produce monthly seasonal outlooks such as the farmers’ weather bulletin and a drought bulletin.
Among some of the objectives of the forum is building partnerships to help reduce the impacts of climate change in sectors which are susceptible to the harsh effects of the phenomenon.

“We hope to provide climate information and products; clear all uncertainties, and look at ways to get information to farmers,” Dhiram said.
He said that whatever information they happen to share is always useful because it empowers societies to manage the risks arising from climate variability and change, and aims to strengthen the interaction between climate service providers and those who make use of the service.

The ‘Met Office’ has been developing tools to add value in the interest of both government and commercial customers by providing special services for organisations to practise tactical decision-making for weather sensitive operations.
According to Dhiram, the ‘Met Office’ has been guided by the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), which accelerates and coordinates the technically and scientifically sound implementation of measures to improve climate-related outcomes at national, regional and global levels. As a framework with broad participation and reach, the GFCS enables the development and application of climate services to assist decision-making at all levels, in support of addressing climate-related risks.

The GFCS focuses on developing and delivering services in five priority areas, which address issues basic to the human condition and present the most immediate opportunities for bringing benefits to human safety and wellbeing. These areas include agriculture, food security, water, health, disaster reduction and energy.

As a subsidiary of this agenda, the NCOF will serve as a platform for promoting regular dialogue and inter-agency coordination in responding to natural hazards.
Representative of the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Dr. Roche Mahon commended Guyana for hosting the NCOF, and said that studies and focus on climate resilience has improved responses in affected areas.

She said that during the drought period in 2014-2015, there was a decline of about 25 per cent in reports of losses from farmers.