THE national conversation about oil has continued to boil, reignited, unfortunately, by the new Al Jazeera interview that once more honed in on the Exxon oil contract.
There is something so strange about this process, though, which I fear will cause a true headache, in that no one seems to be talking, specifically, about what we’ll spend Guyana’s fast accumulating riches on.

We are just under two years out from first production, and there is little concrete in the public discourse. Are we going to figure it all out in the first six months of 2020?
I do feel some of this paralytic confusion is due to the sheer pace of developments; moving from one discovery and 120,000 barrels of oil a day (a little more than Trinidad and Tobago produces now) to eight and 750,000 barrels a day, or six times that number, in only a few years.

This is exacerbated by the rate at which oil will be extracted: First 120,000, then in two years 340,000, then in another year 520,000 and finally 750,000. It’s like getting ready to dive into a pool, but even as you cut that arc through the air, the water suddenly changes, and the pool doubles in size. All of a sudden you’re yards away from the friendly edge, yet down and down you go.

This shifting situation set me to thinking how we can really rationalise such jarring changes, made even more likely now that Exxon has contracted a further drill ship, bringing their total to three.

I am reminded of accounts of Caesar facing Pompey after crossing the Rubicon and uttering, “The die is cast.” And as Pompey retreats off the Italian peninsula to gather his much larger forces, Caesar knows that even though he has already made the dive, forcing a civil war, the pool into which he is falling is quickly growing.

Caesar’s approach seems to have been a combination of speed and anticipation, looking to fight as soon as possible (before Pompey gains further strength) while also anticipating the nature of the opposing forces. I see this locally as us borrowing as soon as possible, within a reasonable threshold, in order to smooth the transition process out from a shock of revenue to a stream. Perhaps the easiest way to do this would be through an expansion of existing programmes while we design new ones for the years of oil production themselves.
The second element of this, however, is the one I see us needing to put the most work into; and that is getting a handle on the nature of the upcoming economy. What does it mean to be not just a major producer like Trinidad and Tobago but a majority producer; one whose economy is dominated by oil?

And this is the reality of it; that there is so much oil being extracted so quickly that our economy will be totally dominated by oil, by itself accounting for five times the current government budget by 2023 and ten times by 2025. This equates to a tripling of the local economy, leaving our other industries far, far behind.

So, let me ask it this way of the oil-dominated economies: What else do they typically produce, and what businesses thrive in their domestic spheres? I believe that our entire understanding of Guyana; the picture we have in our mind, must be remade. While gold will surely remain robust, as will domestically consumed timber, what of fisheries and rice. Will our food industries be decimated as Venezuela’s were, with a heavy reliance on importation? Is that even an acceptable position, given the implications for self-reliance and national security?

In the end, Caesar won the final confrontation with Pompey because he took the time to ask himself what the true nature of his growing challenge was. Who were these new soldiers, and how loyal and skilled could they be expected to be?

This is the investigation critical to successfully managing the oil economy; to avoiding becoming Venezuela. We must ask ourselves what, specifically, might our economy resemble, and begin to strategise accordingly.