Dear Editor,

THE Governor of one of Venezuela’s most populous states plus a panel of Venezuelan economists and journalists are of the view that a government of national unity is the best option for arresting the rapid decline of the economy and the social degradation currently confronting that country.With inflation at 20 per cent per month, these Venezuelan experts are worried that the present crisis would get worse with hyper-inflation, which would see inflation being at over 30 per cent per month.

And what is the trump card of a national unity government for stabilizing the economy and eventually turning it around? OIL! Including reserves in Guyana’s territory and maritime space, which one panellist told me “could be jointly exploited for the mutual benefit of both countries.”

Of course he and the others maintain the validity of their country’s claim, but this one panellist, economist Francisco Rodriguez, co-author of the book “Venezuela before Chavez”, told me, “Whenever oil is involved, the parties will be insistent on their respective positions; but I think we could find a peaceful and mutually beneficial approach, like Venezuela sharing in the exploitation of those reserves.”

Governor Henri Falcon of the State of Lara and a panel of experts, including Rodriguez, Orlando Ochoa of the Andres Bello Catholic University, Caracas; and Francisco Toro, executive editor of Caracas Chronicles, were the main speakers on Thursday evening at a forum hosted by the Americas Society/ Council of the Americas in New York City.

According to Governor Falcon, the situation in Venezuela is getting worse daily…rapidly collapsing domestic production; chronic shortages of food and medicines; rising unemployment; malnutrition, especially among infants; looting and more. The panel agreed that Venezuela needs an injection of about $50 billion (US) over the next 48 months, which could come from a combination of sources, including the local private sector and international institutions such as the IMF, but certain sections of the political landscape in Venezuela would have objections to the IMF’s involvement in the economy.

The panel also agreed that three current levels of engagement with China would have to be revisited, particularly the Oil Fund.

These experts are of the view that Venezuela’s situation is different from that of many countries. “We have significant oil reserves, which we must leverage” to turn around the current situation, they concluded.

Now, there is no doubt that Venezuela is counting Guyana’s oil among its reserves, and that these reserves will be key to that country’s negotiations and efforts to stabilise and turn around the economy.

The panel agreed that Venezuela has good relations with all the important oil companies globally, except two, and that the relationship with these two can be reignited with the right approach, which would be expected of a government of national unity.

So what does this mean for Guyana’s efforts to pursue our oil exploitation and for the preferred process of a juridical settlement of the Venezuelan claim? My initial thinking is that the current Maduro regime and subsequent Venezuelan governments will not subscribe to a juridical settlement of its claim, which if pursued is most likely to uphold the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Award and rule in Guyana’s favour. Guyana has a lot of work to do as it looks for a lasting solution to this controversy.
Regards,
WESLEY KIRTON