The Caribbean Development Bank is projecting a 4% growth for Guyana this year on the strength of expected strong performance in the mining sector, but the Bank is concerned about jobless youths across the region, which it said is the among highest in the world. In its 2015 annual report the CDB said that many of its Borrowing Members Countries (BMCs) for which 2015 labour force data is available, continued to experience double-digit unemployment rates.

The report said that there was no unemployment data for Guyana, but it mentioned that in St. Lucia, despite recent economic progress and several targeted government programmes, unemployment fell only marginally to 24.1%. There was a decline in joblessness in Jamaica, in line with the economic recovery; and also in Belize, thanks to increased activity in agriculture and construction.

In The Bahamas, the 2015 average unemployment rate was also lower than in 2014, although this masks the 2,000 layoffs from the mega resort. Trinidad and Tobago reported a reduction in joblessness in the first half of the year, but the figure rose in the second half, as the economy slowed. An increase was projected in Suriname, due to job losses in mining and agriculture. Other members reporting unemployment rates were Turks and Caicos Island at 11%, significantly down from 17% in 2012; and Grenada at 30.4%.

Inflation declined throughout the Region, with a few exceptions – The Bahamas, due to the introduction of a value added tax (VAT) in January; Haiti, as a result of drought and devaluation; and Suriname, due to devaluation and the negative impact of heavy rainfall on crop production. Elsewhere, the effects of lower global commodity prices, especially crude oil, were reflected in more moderate domestic price rises.

Meanwhile, the CDB said that given the substantial downside risks, it is currently projecting growth in all of its BMCs in 2016, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname. Average regional growth is expected to be about 0.5%. Not including Trinidad and Tobago, expected average growth is 1.8%.

Trinidad and Tobago is the BMC most exposed to pervading global trends; and therefore, low petroleum industry production and product prices are expected to continue. As well as restricting future economic growth, the government’s revenue receipts will be affected, in turn impacting the country’s future public sector investment, the CDB predicted. Therefore, the economy is expected to contract by about 2%.

Accordingly, low commodity prices will also affect Suriname, which is likely to face a period of fiscal consolidation, which could constrain domestic demand; and also slow credit growth. CDB estimates that the economy will decline by 1%. Growth is expected to be 4% in Guyana as gold production is ramped up at the two new mines. Public investment should also increase.

The Bank said that the Caribbean economy experienced a difficult year in 2015, exacerbated by challenges in the world economy.
Global economic growth fell from 3.4% in 2014 to 3.1% in 2015. The main reason was the slowdown in China, which along with other developments, kept commodity prices low, impacting exporters of those products. The forecast for the United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and Canada was revised downward during the year. Being small open economies, Caribbean countries were not immune from these effects. Commodity producing countries experienced sharp declines, while tourism reliant economies enjoyed a relatively good year.

In addition to economic vulnerability, resulting from its heavy dependence on overseas markets in 2015, the Region’s susceptibility to environmental events was also demonstrated. Natural disasters in Dominica and The Bahamas set back economic growth and weather occurrences, particularly drought, affected agricultural production.