-Odeen Ishmael

Retired Guyanese diplomat, Odeen Ishmael says the Venezuelan opposition coalition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) that wrest control of that country’s Parliament from Nicolas Maduro will want to see an improvement in relations with both Guyana and ColombiaAnd could flex their diplomatic muscles to show that they can work to improve the relations with their neighbours.

Ishmael made the comments in reaction to the Parliamentary victory secured by the opposition in Sunday’s elections in Venezuela. Relations between Guyana and Venezuela have been strained since May this year following Caracas’ renewed claims of this country’s sovereignty.
The broad, mostly centre-right MUD coalition won a majority of 99 out of 167 seats in the state legislature, the head of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Tibisay Lucena, announced early on Monday. Maduro promptly appeared on television saying he accepted the defeat, a blow to his leadership during a dire economic crisis. “We have come with our morals and our ethics to recognise these adverse results, to accept them and to say to our Venezuela that the constitution and democracy have triumphed,” he said, according to Al Jazeera.

In an interview with local and foreign reporters, Ishmael said Implications of the political changes in Venezuela for relations between the two countries must be properly analysed. “We have to keep in mind that Maduro still controls the executive reins in Venezuela. The opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) will now control the legislature from next January. It is hoping to win an overall two-thirds majority which will enable it to sack Supreme Court justices, initiate a referendum to recall Maduro, and even convoke an assembly to rewrite Hugo Chavez’s 1999 constitution.” Ishmael said with a simple majority, the coalition can pass an amnesty law to free political prisoners. However, the outgoing legislature can give Maduro powers to rule by decree to enable him to overrule actions of the new legislature. “But this can lead to civil unrest and I don’t think the outgoing legislature will do so. Maduro himself may not want that power since he has stated that he respects the results of the election, and he will also want to rebuild his own leadership within the Venezuelan Socialist Party (PSV) which is currently threatened by this huge loss. Any civil unrest will not be helpful for him,” Ishmael reasoned.

Ishmael said though detailed election results have not yet been released, the opposition won convincingly in traditional pro-government strongholds, including the Petare, January 23 and Catia barrios (slums) in Caracas, the eastern oil city of Maturin and Hugo Chavez’s home state of Barinas. In the Caracas barrios, the PSV always won more than three-quarters of the votes in previous elections.

Exploration offshore Guyana.
Weighing in on the issue of oil exploration, Ishmael said Venezuela currently has the largest oil reserves, but production has dropped over the past few years. “If there is going to be stepped up production will depend not on the legislature but on the executive which is in the hands of Maduro and his cabinet. Surely, the legislative change in Venezuela should not determine if Guyana should or should not continue its own offshore oil exploration and drilling,” he added, noting that politicians across the political spectrum tend to hold one head regarding their claim to Guyana’s territory, “so no one should expect that the political change will result in a retraction of the claim. Despite Maduro’s aggressive language and action against Guyana, his party itself is not antagonistic towards Guyana. Some forces within the MUD coalition have very strong positions with regard to the claim to Guyana’s territory.”

He said too that he does not see a change in the political trend in Venezuela with regard to the claim to the Essequibo region. “However, this should not deter Guyanese political leaders from meeting with the new legislative leaders to discuss the issue in order to find out where they stand. “ “In my opinion, they will state support for the UN Good Offices process, as the Maduro administration continue to assert, but it is important to find out where the MUD stands with respect to asking the UN Secretary General to place the border issue in the hands of the International Court of Justice,” Ismael reasoned.

Asked whether there could be political unity between MUD and PSV on the border controversy, Ishmael said: “As I have stated above, both groupings tend to unite over the border issue. However, some allies of the PSV, notably the Communist Part of Venezuela, want an end to the claim. I am not aware of any of the groupings in the MUD taking a similar position, but our diplomatic probing can determine if any such opinion prevails in any of them. One of the most influential persons in the MUD is Dr. Sadio Garavini, a former ambassador to Guyana in the 1980s. He has always been very keen to cement better relations with Guyana and so it will be useful to initiate conversations with him.”

He stressed that the opposition-controlled legislature will likely bide its time until the next presidential election when they will try to win full power. “Until then, it is possible the PetroCaribe arrangement may continue. And it may be doubtful of the MUD will want to force a cancellation of PetroCaribe immediately considering that it will want to improve relations with Caribbean countries if it eventually win the presidency in three years’ time.”