THERE has been a change of government in Trinidad and Tobago, where the multi-party People’s Partnership (PP) was voted out of office after a single term.
The PNM (People’s National Movement), under a new leader, Dr. Keith Rowley, has returned to power. Despite the final seat allocation in the National Assembly (23-18), it was a very close election. According to an official report, the PNM won just over 51% of the popular vote.
This seems to be a trend in recent Caribbean elections. Here in Guyana, the APNU+AFC coalition won with just 50.3% of the popular vote. In the St Kitts-Nevis poll held earlier this year, the ruling coalition actually won less votes (49.9%) than the opposition (50.1%).
It is thus a reflection of how polarised our electorates have become, but more than that, it calls into question our persistence with the winner-takes-all model. Clearly, half of the electorates do not support their governments; this is a recipe for instability. In Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, the ethnic dynamics add fuel to the situation.
Although analysts and Trinidadians themselves like to make a distinction between the hostile ethnic politics in Guyana and the more friendly engagement in Trinidad, the evidence does not always support that evaluation.
The recent election, which, from all indications, came down to an ethnic contest, was as intensely fought between the two major groups as any in Guyana. The final result seems to bear this out. Ethnic hostility comes to the fore when the stakes are high.
And the stakes were high in both the Trinidad and Guyana elections. Regardless of the rhetoric of the new governments, they will ultimately be seen as representing one side of the ethnic divide. In fact, both the PP and the PPP lost government, largely because they were perceived as representing Indian interests, which, in turn, served as a source of mobilisation for the opposite group.
Something has to be done sooner rather than later to halt this vicious cycle which continues to cripple joint nationhood in these countries.
The situation in Trinidad and Tobago is compounded by the first-past-the-post system, which has, more often than not, produced skewed results. In this most recent election, although the PPP would have still lost the election (based on the preliminary results), it would have gained an extra two seats. The promised challenge to the election results by the PP is an interesting development moving forward. In the case of St Kitts-Nevis, if they had a proportional representation system, the opposition party would have been in government.
Whatever the merits of the constituency system, it has serious deficiencies that should be corrected. It is a good sign that the parties in Trinidad are considering a change in favour of PR.
This election in Trinidad has lessons for Guyana. Our new coalition government may be interested in learning what went wrong with the partnership in Trinidad. The PPP may also be interested in learning what went wrong with Indo-Trinidad solidarity in the sister country. As they say, when your neighbour’s house is on fire, help to put it out.