–Dr Ramsammy reports

AGRICULTURE Minister Dr. Leslie Ramsammy, pointing out that the May/June rains have been less than expected, has said that the probability of Guyana experiencing El Nino conditions has increased over 98 per cent.

“The May/June rain, even though we have had rain, is below what we normally have; so all our conservancies are below full supply levels,” he told the Guyana Chronicle in an invited comment.

The water level data from the four main conservancies has indicated the following:

* The East Demerara Water Conservancy (EDWC) stands at 56 Georgetown Datum (GD) over its full supply level of 58GD; and

* The Mahaica/Mahaicony/Abary (MMA) stands at 59GD over its full supply level of 64 GD.

The Boerasirie and Tapakuma conservancies, as of yesterday morning, were at full supply levels, at 61.3GD and 57.5GD respectively.

The minister added that while some rain has fallen, the amount of water needed by farmers is greater than what has been replenished. He said, “Thankfully, the amount of rain we have had has not seen the conservancies’ supply being depleted; but the amount of water we need at this time for farmers in both the sugar and rice sectors, and even for the cash crop farmers, cannot be met by the amount of rain we are having. The rain is falling, but we are withdrawing more than the rain is replenishing.”

The Agriculture Ministry had issued an El Nino alert in May, after having consulted with its Hydro-meteorological Office and taking into consideration predictions from various regional and international forecasting and weather agencies.

A Special El Nino Working Group has since been set up to monitor and plan actions to reduce any adverse impact of a possible El Nino phenomenon on agriculture production.

Additionally, in late April, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned countries that the possibility of a severe El Nino phenomenon must be heeded.
Climatologists and weather forecasters predicted an El Nino phenomenon for the Americas, to start in July and intensify towards October and December. The prediction as of this time is that it could be a serious phenomenon, with severe droughts in many parts of the Americas.

Guyana has been, and continues to be, a victim of climate change, but has taken steps to adapt to, and mitigate, its effects.

La Nina is above-average rainfall in an area for a particular period of time. It is generally associated with drier places, and follows a period of El Nino.

(By Vanessa Narine)