IF, AS SEEMS likely, the latest results of an established independent public opinion poll prove correct, then the official host for next month’s annual Caribbean Community Heads of Government Conference in Antigua and Barbuda will not be incumbent Prime Minister, Baldwin Spencer—leader of the ruling United Progressive Party (UPP).Rather, based on projections for today’s general elections by the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES), that honour is being reserved  for first-time leader of the Antigua Labour Party (ALP), Gaston  Brown. His name is not yet well known among CARICOM citizens beyond the sub-region of the Organisation of Eastern  Caribbean States (OECS). But stay tuned.
Of the 17 parliamentary seats at stake, CADRES’ political scientist, Peter Wickham, predicts a minimum of ten constituencies for the ALP to a possible two thirds. Except for the single seat for tiny sister isle Barbuda, all the constituencies are spread across Antigua.
However, despite the CADRES assessment and the robust presence at  campaign meetings, including choking streets of motorcades of ALP supporters, according to various reports out of St.John’s, Prime Minister Spencer was maintaining his feisty mood with the prediction of an “overwhelming voters response” for
a consecutive third five-year term for his ULP.
The CARICOM Secretariat in  Georgetown has organised  a nine-member team of observers to monitor the conduct of the elections. There will also be observer missions from the Commonwealth,  Organisation of American States  and the Inter-American Institute of Human Rights.
The hope is that this time around there would be no repeat of bitter claims of gerrymandering of constituency boundaries,  manipulation of  ballot-counting and other improprieties that had characterised the 2012 elections, which also marked the last political hurrah for the ALP’s Lester Bird.
Traditionally regarded as the Birds’ family party, founded and nurtured by the now late veteran trade unionist and politician, Vere  Bird, the ALP was first defeated by Spencer’s UPP with a landslide  victory in 2004, amid spreading disaffection over claimed political cronyism, financial corruption and economic mismanagement.
Ironically, some of these allegations had also surfaced by the early years of the UPP’s second term.
More recently, Prime Minister Spencer has been pushed to defend his administration against financial malpractices  in the operations of a still fledgling “citizenship for investment” programme by which foreigners acquire Antigua and Barbuda citizenship without having to reside in the country and with which they secure access to countries of choice.
For now, the waiting is for the official results by this evening to know who will be invited by the Governor to be sworn in as the Prime Minister to host next month’s CARICOM summit  in St. John’s.
There will also follow the assessments from the visiting missions observing the conduct of the elections to ascertain whether or not electoral fraud was again a sad feature  in  order to determine the legitimacy of either Spencer’s incumbent UPP, or first-timer Browne-led ALP to govern Antigua and Barbuda.
 Written By Rickey Singh