Written by Savitri Laikram
TOURISM, Industry and Commerce Minister (acting), Mr. Irfaan Ali, is exhorting persons to ‘believe’ in the future, ‘believe’ in the dream, and ‘believe’ in Guyana, as he believes that everyone has it in them to take Guyana places and let Guyana shine.

Ali described Thursday’s opening of the GUYEXPO Trade Fair as being very significant and important in the history of Guyana. “It is a time when we seek to transcend the lessons of the past, when we seek to move forward and build this Guyana we all believe in,” he said.

This is a time to expand the productive sector and transform Guyana’s national economic landscape, and a time when the economy is in transition, he said. “It is a time for consolidating our gains and building on the foundation (already laid); a time to transcend the learning curve.”
Ali highlighted that the “I Believe” campaign seeks to reach out to every Guyanese beyond political, ethnic and religious barriers and hopefully cause them to embrace the new developmental ideals of projects like the Amaila Falls Hydro Project, the Specialty Hospital, the Marriott Hotel, and the Cheddi Jagan International Airport (CJIA) Expansion project.
Ali also hosted an “I Believe” concert to launch the “I Believe” campaign, in which he brought together local artistes and performers at the National Exhibition Centre yesterday.
He posited that “the Government of Guyana has led our country in an economically sound way, and invested tremendously in the social infrastructure.” He said that in examining management practices under the present Government, it would be well noted that, over the past years, there have been many programmes and policies aimed at removing the constraint of development.
These include the Public Sector Modernisation Project, the Public Management Modernisation Programme, the Fiscal and Financial Management Programme, the Modernisation of the Justice Administration System, and the Competitiveness Programme, which he said have been guided by various developmental aspects, including the National Development Strategy; the Poverty Reduction Strategy, phases One and Two; the National Competitiveness Strategy, and most recently, the Low Carbon Development Strategy.
With regard to economic growth and diversification, Guyana’s economy recorded significant positive economic growth over the past number of years, he said, and continued, that Guyana is now two episodes above normal economic growth between the 1990 -1993 and 2006–2011 periods.
Moreover, he said, the economy displayed greater resilience to external shocks as it shifted significantly from agriculture to mining and services.

Macro-economic management
Ali posited that fiscal deficit and public debt have been on the decline since 1992; public external death was estimated at 48 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2012, which was one of the lowest in the Caribbean and is a marked improvement on the external debt-to-GDP position in 1989, which was then 600 percent.

Price and exchange rate stability.
Minister Ali said that inflation has been contained in the low single-digits, averaging less than six percent annually in the last 20 yrs, while the nominal exchange rate is broadly stable against the US dollar, as reflected by the low volatility, according to “Khemraj and Pasha 2012”.

Social indicators
“Our key social indicators have also improved. Extreme poverty was estimated at 18.6 percent in 2006, compared with 29 percent in 1992, according to the Inter-American Development Bank in 2008,” Minister Ali posited.
He noted that Guyana’s Human Development Index rose from 0.606 in 2000 to 0.633 in 2011.
He indicated that using household consumption per capital, the welfare measure suggests a decreasing pattern of inequality between 1992 and 2006.
He noted that the overall inequality is relatively low in Guyana compared with other Latin American countries, including Brazil at 0.545, Chile at 0.556, and Panama at 0.548.
He said there is improvement in Guyana’s ranking in the Human Development Report. The country is now categorised as a medium human development country, having moved two points in 2011.
He reiterated that Guyana has made significant progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals, and noted that already achieved are nutrition and child health, eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, and attainment of universal primary education.
He posited that those goals which are on course to being achieved include water sanitation and HIV. These results, he said, also confirm the success of Guyana’s social programmes.
In terms of the Governance Indicator, Guyana’s governance framework has also improved, as is evident from the World Bank Country Performance and Institution Assessment (CPIA) scores.
There were notable improvements in the areas of economic management and policies for social inclusion and equity.
According to Ali, foreign direct investment (FDI), the stable social and political environment, and Government’s pro-business policies have ensured the massive empowering and domestic investment in the country since 1992. In fact, during 2006, 2007, and 2012 periods, FDI trended upwards, amounted to more than $US1.3B.
This surpassed the levels reported in the 1990s, when the economy was liberalised.
He said it is also noteworthy that significant FDI inflows vented to new emerging sectors, such as transportation and telecommunication sectors, as well as energy and manufacturing.

Domestic Investment and Credit
The minister noted that, based on statistics from the Bank of Guyana, domestic credit from the private sector at the end of 2012 was Gy$2.6B, all in major sectors of the economy, including agriculture, mining, quarrying and manufacturing. Also, services benefited from higher loans and advances from the commercial banks.
He posited that interest rates also, during this period, declined from 35 percent in 1989 to 10 percent at the end of 2012; and asserted that the mortgage rates by the New Building Society (NBS) moved from 18 percent at the end of 1992 to 4.25 percent at the end of 2012.

Soundness and stability of the financial sector
Minister Ali confirmed that the financial sector remains extremely sound and stable, according to the Global Economic Forum, which ranked Guyana 53 out of 153 countries in 2011.

The Capital Adequacy Ratio
A tier-one ratio of Licence Depository Institution (LDI), which reflects the ability of LDI to cope with risks, was also above the established international benchmark.
Ali said that, in the present situation, evidence of the low macroeconomic risks includes improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals, such as robust stable domestic prices; strong fiscal and external balances; greater policy certainty; improvement in the governance framework, especially those related to rule of law, regulatory quality government effectiveness, political stability, and voice and accountability over the last six years.
The minister said improvements in the country’s international framework have also been reflected in the latest ranking in respect to the institutional pillar of the Global Competitiveness Index.
Some of the major improvements are related to the cost and availability to doing business; cost and productivity of local labour, and quality of our labour force and education system.
He added that there have been many views expressed on Guyana’s education system, but one has to look at the facts and figures.
He reported that, according to the Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Report of 2012/2013, the quality of Guyana’s primary education is ranked 50, compared with a ranking of 109 for Jamaica, 66 for Suriname, and 34 for Trinidad and Tobago.
In terms of quality of the education system, Guyana is ranked 42, compared with a ranking of 84 for Jamaica and Suriname, and 40 for Trinidad and Tobago.
In terms of quality of management of school, Guyana is ranked 64, compared with 76 for Jamaica, 63 for Suriname and 36 for Trinidad and Tobago.
In terms of the availability of financial services, Guyana is ranked 70, while Suriname is ranked 123, Trinidad and Tobago 82, and Jamaica 64.
He said that in terms of the affordability of financial services, Guyana is ranked 72, while Suriname is ranked 120, Jamaica 92, and Trinidad and Tobago 109.
In the ease of accessing loans, Guyana is ranked at 76 while Jamaica is ranked at 127, Suriname at 103, and Barbados at 179.
Minister Ali said an IDB survey reported similar improvements in the ranking of Guyana in regard to the sub-indices of paying taxes, trading across borders, and enforcing contracts.
With regard to the number of days it takes to export and import goods, Guyana has developed a comprehensive action plan aimed at improving business and strengthening the institutional environment.
He posited that the plan consists of over 60 competitiveness and efficiency-enhancing reforms, including starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts etc.
He highlighted that it is envisaged that successful implementation of the action plan would see improvement in Guyana’s ranking on the World Bank’s Business Indicator to 80 from its current position of 114, by 2016.
“We ask that the private sector work with us in accomplishing this ambitious but achievable target,” Ali said.
Ali believes that the strategy that will buttress Guyana is the “bottom-up and top-down strategy”, the bottom-up strategy intended to build stronger communities through people-centred initiatives, among which are the micro and small enterprises’ (MSE) development, and building alternative livelihoods for  vulnerable groups in projects that would assist MSE with collateral guarantees not exceeding $30M, interest subsidy, grants and technical and management skills; while the scheme is intended to assist MSE generally towards business in the low carbon sectors.
“We are hoping that community-based tourism projects can benefit tremendously from this,” Minister Ali asserted.
He said the Amerindian Development Fund is intended to provide funds for socioeconomic development of the Amerindian communities and villages through implementation of the community development plans.
He noted that the Caribbean Local Economic Development Project (CARILED) funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) was recently established to stimulate growth of the MSE sector while strengthening the competencies and capacity of Local Government.
Ali also mentioned the Women of Worth (WoW) initiative, which serves to enhance single-parent women with finances to establish a business to better their financial status with a loan of between $100,000 and $250,000 at a very low percentage interest rate, with a maximum repayment period of 24 months.
Development involves the transformation of various financial projects of public/private partnerships, and there are many other programmes as such, he said.
There are also projects that are very crucial for categorising good development, while diversifying the economic base to improve the resilience of the domestic economy. For example, the Marriot Hotel, the Cheddi Jagan International Airport (CJIA) Expansion Project, the deep-water harbour project, industrial parks, establishment of a pre-paid zone and, more importantly, the expansion of the existing trade infrastructure.
He concluded, “You would see that our vision is in keeping with advancing productivity through innovation, modernisation and expansion.”