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AGRICULTURE Minister Dr Leslie Ramsammy recently made a very important and pertinent assertion , among others, whereby he called for a reorientation of the sugar industry because of changing climatic patterns.
The minister is perfectly right in his assertion, because from all indications, the climatic pattern in the near future would become increasingly unpredictable and erratic.
According to scientific experts, for the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.
Since the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC) first report in 1990, assessed projections have suggested global average temperature increases between about 0.15°C and 0.3°C per decade for 1990 to 2005. This can now be compared with observed values of about 0.2°C per decade, strengthening confidence in near-term projections.
Model experiments show that even if all radiative forcing agents were held constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade, due mainly to the slow response of the oceans. About twice as much warming (0.2°C per decade) would be expected if emissions are within the range of the SRES scenarios. Best-estimate projections from models indicate that decadal average warming over each inhabited continent by 2030 is insensitive to the choice among SRES scenarios and is very likely to be at least twice as large as the corresponding model-estimated natural variability during the 20th century.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
Dr Ramsammy noted that in the past, GUYSUCO had operated on long crops, more specifically, two crops that lasted between 13 and 20 weeks, bringing the total weeks of production to 32 to 40.
However, he said that because of changing weather patterns, the corporation now has to restructure to function within shorter crop periods of approximately 10 to 12 weeks.
“So one of the things they need to do is a strategy of how to shorten their crops to take maximum advantage of opportunity days, this means doubling up,” he stated.
Another important observation by the minister is the need for increasing yields. “Presently, we have between 55 and 60 tonnes of cane per hectare. We need to improve that to over 70 tonnes per hectare so that we get more cane from the same amount of land and therefore we have to examine the agricultural practices that are in use in the industry today,” he explained.
Moreover, Dr. Ramsammy noted that the variety of cane being used also has to be examined. He pointed out that the infrastructure, such as dams and canals, have to be improved to facilitate more work being done in a shorter period of time.
These are extremely crucial issues that have to be urgently addressed if the industry is to not only significantly increase its volume of production, but also to remain competitive on the global market which is essential for its survival.
In order for the industry to remain globally competitive, it needs to bring down its cost of production to about US9 cents per pound.
Therefore, as the minister correctly asserts, the challenges faced cannot be addressed in a piecemeal manner, but rather through a reorientation of the production process; and the sooner this is done, the better.
The minister is perfectly right in his assertion, because from all indications, the climatic pattern in the near future would become increasingly unpredictable and erratic.
According to scientific experts, for the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.
Since the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC) first report in 1990, assessed projections have suggested global average temperature increases between about 0.15°C and 0.3°C per decade for 1990 to 2005. This can now be compared with observed values of about 0.2°C per decade, strengthening confidence in near-term projections.
Model experiments show that even if all radiative forcing agents were held constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade, due mainly to the slow response of the oceans. About twice as much warming (0.2°C per decade) would be expected if emissions are within the range of the SRES scenarios. Best-estimate projections from models indicate that decadal average warming over each inhabited continent by 2030 is insensitive to the choice among SRES scenarios and is very likely to be at least twice as large as the corresponding model-estimated natural variability during the 20th century.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
Dr Ramsammy noted that in the past, GUYSUCO had operated on long crops, more specifically, two crops that lasted between 13 and 20 weeks, bringing the total weeks of production to 32 to 40.
However, he said that because of changing weather patterns, the corporation now has to restructure to function within shorter crop periods of approximately 10 to 12 weeks.
“So one of the things they need to do is a strategy of how to shorten their crops to take maximum advantage of opportunity days, this means doubling up,” he stated.
Another important observation by the minister is the need for increasing yields. “Presently, we have between 55 and 60 tonnes of cane per hectare. We need to improve that to over 70 tonnes per hectare so that we get more cane from the same amount of land and therefore we have to examine the agricultural practices that are in use in the industry today,” he explained.
Moreover, Dr. Ramsammy noted that the variety of cane being used also has to be examined. He pointed out that the infrastructure, such as dams and canals, have to be improved to facilitate more work being done in a shorter period of time.
These are extremely crucial issues that have to be urgently addressed if the industry is to not only significantly increase its volume of production, but also to remain competitive on the global market which is essential for its survival.
In order for the industry to remain globally competitive, it needs to bring down its cost of production to about US9 cents per pound.
Therefore, as the minister correctly asserts, the challenges faced cannot be addressed in a piecemeal manner, but rather through a reorientation of the production process; and the sooner this is done, the better.
