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MANY Guyanese are settled in Grenada working in the education and construction sectors but are not showing any inclination to vote in the election or much interest in the campaign. In fact, virtually none of them is registered to vote although they are entitled to vote as Caribbean nationals. For the most part, they are staying out of the race with a few who hold Grenadian passports saying they may vote. One family I met randomly will vote for the opposition saying life was better when the NNP governed. Guyanese are very hardworking and admired for their productivity and industriousness and Grenadians do not ill speak them as in the other islands. I was also informed by immigration officials that the number of Guyanese sent home has been down.
Based on the reports of various opinion polls conducted in Grenada, the opposition NNP led by Dr. Keith Mitchell is projected to win Tuesday’s general elections. The latest findings of a tracking survey through Sunday morning conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA), the opposition NNP is likely to win a majority of seats. NACTA is a New York-based polling organisation founded by Guyanese Dr. Latchman Narain and Trinidadian Vassan Ramracha. Through Guyanese teacher Vishnu Bisram, NACTA has been conducting polls in the Caribbean for over 20 years and has developed an exemplary track record of being on target in its predictions. The organisation most recently predicted the landslide victory of the incumbent PNM in Tobago last month.
The findings of the latest NACTA poll show the NNP holds a slight lead over the incumbent National Democratic Congress (NDC) led by Prime Minister Tillman Thomas. Reports say two other commissioned polls conducted by Peter Wickham of the Barbados-based Cadres Polling Institute and Derek Ramsamooj, predict a complete sweep for the NNP. Wickham had predicted an opposition victory in the 2011 elections. A poll commissioned by the NDC gives the ruling party a 12-3 lead. A NACTA poll gives the NNP leads in seven seats and NDC leads in three seats with five seats very close that can be considered toss ups. Overall, the NACTA poll has nine seats within its margin of error with the momentum on the side of the NNP. Of
the two other polls, Wickham and Ramsamooj, neither one says any seat is within a margin of error assuring a landslide NNP victory. Objectively speaking, the election is much closer than what both parties claim.
Although the other polls show a huge victory for either the NDC or NNP, NACTA feels several seats are very competitive with the opposition having the edge but not guaranteed a victory because they have not crossed the magic 50%. The NACTA poll finds that while an opposition sweep is not impossible, it is highly unlikely. The NDC has lost a lot of support and the odds are against it to retain office. But it is in a good position to narrowly retain a few seats but not in a position to wrest any from the NNP. A NACTA survey of police officers who voted on Friday, show a better than four to one preference for the NNP. Also, NACTA shows government workers are also heavily leaning towards the NNP.
The tone of the campaign has turned off a lot of voters. People complain about a lack of jobs, economic growth and investment in the island. They complain that neither party is offering a vision for the future and how they will create jobs. Several supporters of the NDC indicate they will not vote because of the infighting within the party. This enhances the electoral chances of the NNP whose supporters will come out in droves.
Apathy runs high in the island as compared with voting in 2008 when some 81% cast ballots. But Sunday’s rallies do not give that impression of people who will not vote. Both parties attracted huge rallies on Sunday night. Literally tens of thousands – bigger than anything seen in Guyana or Trinidad showed up to support their parties. That now makes the election so hard to predict. Turnout will be the key to the outcome. And those silent and undecided voters could determine the victor.
The NACTA poll reveals that a majority of voters say they prefer Dr. Keith Mitchell over Tillman Thomas as PM. They also have greater confidence in Mitchell to turn around the economy. But Thomas seems to be enjoying sympathy that could save him.
Based on the reports of various opinion polls conducted in Grenada, the opposition NNP led by Dr. Keith Mitchell is projected to win Tuesday’s general elections. The latest findings of a tracking survey through Sunday morning conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA), the opposition NNP is likely to win a majority of seats. NACTA is a New York-based polling organisation founded by Guyanese Dr. Latchman Narain and Trinidadian Vassan Ramracha. Through Guyanese teacher Vishnu Bisram, NACTA has been conducting polls in the Caribbean for over 20 years and has developed an exemplary track record of being on target in its predictions. The organisation most recently predicted the landslide victory of the incumbent PNM in Tobago last month.
The findings of the latest NACTA poll show the NNP holds a slight lead over the incumbent National Democratic Congress (NDC) led by Prime Minister Tillman Thomas. Reports say two other commissioned polls conducted by Peter Wickham of the Barbados-based Cadres Polling Institute and Derek Ramsamooj, predict a complete sweep for the NNP. Wickham had predicted an opposition victory in the 2011 elections. A poll commissioned by the NDC gives the ruling party a 12-3 lead. A NACTA poll gives the NNP leads in seven seats and NDC leads in three seats with five seats very close that can be considered toss ups. Overall, the NACTA poll has nine seats within its margin of error with the momentum on the side of the NNP. Of
the two other polls, Wickham and Ramsamooj, neither one says any seat is within a margin of error assuring a landslide NNP victory. Objectively speaking, the election is much closer than what both parties claim.
Although the other polls show a huge victory for either the NDC or NNP, NACTA feels several seats are very competitive with the opposition having the edge but not guaranteed a victory because they have not crossed the magic 50%. The NACTA poll finds that while an opposition sweep is not impossible, it is highly unlikely. The NDC has lost a lot of support and the odds are against it to retain office. But it is in a good position to narrowly retain a few seats but not in a position to wrest any from the NNP. A NACTA survey of police officers who voted on Friday, show a better than four to one preference for the NNP. Also, NACTA shows government workers are also heavily leaning towards the NNP.
The tone of the campaign has turned off a lot of voters. People complain about a lack of jobs, economic growth and investment in the island. They complain that neither party is offering a vision for the future and how they will create jobs. Several supporters of the NDC indicate they will not vote because of the infighting within the party. This enhances the electoral chances of the NNP whose supporters will come out in droves.
Apathy runs high in the island as compared with voting in 2008 when some 81% cast ballots. But Sunday’s rallies do not give that impression of people who will not vote. Both parties attracted huge rallies on Sunday night. Literally tens of thousands – bigger than anything seen in Guyana or Trinidad showed up to support their parties. That now makes the election so hard to predict. Turnout will be the key to the outcome. And those silent and undecided voters could determine the victor.
The NACTA poll reveals that a majority of voters say they prefer Dr. Keith Mitchell over Tillman Thomas as PM. They also have greater confidence in Mitchell to turn around the economy. But Thomas seems to be enjoying sympathy that could save him.
