Analysis by Rickey Singh
THE JUST-ended state of emergency in Trinidad and Tobago and release of all suspects in a reported plot to murder Prime Minister Kamala Persad-Bissessar and three of her cabinet colleagues can be expected to fuel political discussions well beyond the life of the current parliament. After all, the political parties in that twin-island state remain sharply divided over the security threats facing the nation and the strategies to be pursued in dealing with perceived entrenched criminality that involves daring drug-traffickers and dealers in gun-running amid an unflattering profile in corruption.
However, despite the occasional forays of elements among segments of its “partnership”—in particular from new leader of the Congress of Peoples (COP) Prakash Ramadhar—and, to a lesser extent, the Movement for Social Justice (MSJ)—the United National Congress-dominated People’s Partnership of Government (PPG) of Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar faces no real problems of surviving its five-year term from the main opposition People’s National Movement (PNM).
At least, not while a perceived pro-Patrick Manning faction of the PNM, in and out of parliament, maintains critical support for Opposition Leader Keith Rowley who, seemingly, continues to have difficulties in managing an appropriate relationship with the former Prime Minister and long-serving party leader.
A divided labour movement that is currently planning to mount “massive protests”, according to the President of the militant Oil Workers Trade Union (OWTU), against the government’s five-percent wage hike for public sector workers, would also have to face up to this political reality in the country’s governance politics.
Meanwhile, across in neighbouring Guyana, an hour’s flying time from Piarco International, the November 28 presidential, parliamentary and regional elections have resulted in an unprecedented division of power in governance of the country with which there are some quite significant political, social and cultural similarities with Trinidad and Tobago. Among them would be voting patterns, even with different electoral systems.
Contrasting scenarios
Not since 1964, when an official Anglo-American deal against the then governing People’s Progressive Party (PPP) of the now late Dr Cheddi Jagan, had resulted in changing of the electoral system from First-Past-the-Post to Proportional Representation (PR), as campaigned for by the main opposition People’s National Congress (PNC) and the minority United Force (UF), has the PPP had to again face, 47 years later, a narrow parliamentary defeat, as occurred at the recent November 28 elections.
In between, the PPP had convincingly won and retained overall state power at four successive elections, with an Executive Presidency and in Parliament, for 19 years, under the same PR voting system.
Until, that is, the rather surprising verdict of the electorate last month with the party retaining the executive arm of government with a much empowered Head of State, but loss of control, by a single seat, for the 65-member parliament.
While emerging with the largest bloc of votes, second to the pre-election coalition of parties–A Partnership for National Unity (APNU)—that’s overwhelmingly dominated by the PNC, the approximately 73 percent of the voting electorate have in effect armed the minority Alliance for Change (AFC) with the balance of power, giving it seven seats to the PPP’s 32 and the PNC’s 26.
The heads of foreign diplomatic missions in Georgetown, in declaring the results as a “win-win” situation for Guyana, appealed to the three parties to abide by the results and cooperate in the best national interest of the country.
While the influential Private Sector Commission (PSC) lost no time in  dismissing any idea for “shared governance”, as distinct from  structured cooperation between the parties in parliament and the Executive President, the minority AFC has since made clear that it has no intention at this time to team up with either the PPP or APNU. Rather, it plans to make use of its seven-seat representation in parliament in the best interest of Guyana and all Guyanese.
Speaker and protests
Well, with the completion of swearing ceremonies for a new Executive President (the PPP’s Donald Ramotar) and his 20-member cabinet of ministers, the first challenge to pledged “cooperation in the national interest” would come when the choice of a new Speaker takes place shortly for the ceremonial inauguration of the new parliament.
Traditionally, while PNC held power on its own for 24 years, it was accustomed to also determining the choice of Speaker. This was also true during the 19 years of governance by the PPP. Now, its decision on who is chosen Speaker will be the crucial factor:
Unless the PPP abandons plan to nominate a non-elected candidate as Speaker—as was the case when Ralph Ramkarran, a respected Senior Counsel, who served, uninterrupted, in that capacity up to the dissolution of the last parliament—then it can be expected that APNU and AFC will use their one-seat majority to elect the new Speaker.
The signal, at the time of writing, is that the PPP would strive for an accommodation in the selection of a Speaker to avoid an early rupture in its pursuit of strategies to effectively provide an unprecedented minority parliamentary government.
It is quite aware of the bankable support that resides with the Executive President, and hopefully, also its own post-election stated preference–similar to that of the combined APNU/AFC opposition–for “consensus and national unity”
Unlike, therefore, the current situation in Trinidad and Tobago, where Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar’s dominant UNC holds no fear of being deserted by any of its constituent “partners” in  parliament, the PPP will have to face—for as long as it considers necessary, or expedient—the challenges of compromise in running a minority government.
If not, it will be back to the electorate for a new, and perhaps even more gruelling, battle for all parties. On Monday there was a meeting with President Ramotar and APNU’s presidential candidate, retired Brigadier of the Guyana Defence Force (GDF), David Granger, to discuss post-election matters and consistent with a pre-election pledge to cooperate in the national interest.
However, on Tuesday, while this analysis was being written, there were clashes in Georgetown between riot squad police and APNU supporters who were engaged in what the police deemed an “illegal demonstration”.
Among the injured when the police fired rubber bullets and used tear gas, was the retired Brigadier of the GDF Edward Collins, and the leader of APNU’s youth arm James Bond.
Following a meeting with a delegation from the Private Sector Commission, (PSC), the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) is expected to release by today statements of the November 28 poll to the contesting parties.