CHANGING DYNAMICS

I CAME across a good article (in one of the local dailies on Wednesday, April 13) captioned ‘America’s Arab Comeback’ which I thought I would share with readers since it captures the changing dynamics in the Middle East and changing perceptions of U.S. foreign policy in the region. The writer, Daoud Kuttab, made the point that attitudes and perceptions towards the United States is changing especially since the assumption of President Barack Obama to the White House among people in general but more so among the younger generation.

This, he said, is attributable to the African origins of the current U.S. president and the fact that he has some familiarity with the religion of Islam as a result of his early formative years he spent in Indonesia, a predominantly Muslim country coupled with the fact that his name Barack Obama has Islamic connotations.

The current turmoil in Africa and the Middle East seems to have lent some validity to this perception. There was a time when the intervention of the United States and, for that matter any western power, in the internal affairs of a Muslim country, would have been enough to spark protests and demonstrations, regardless of the nature of the issues involved. Anti-American and anti-west sentiments were so high that it was quite easy for Arab leaders to manipulate and galvanize popular support and solidarity. The United States was seen as an ‘evil’ which must be resisted at any or all cost.

Such perceptions, as mentioned earlier, are now changing in the Arab world. In fact, the United States is seen as an important ally in the democratization process which is sweeping across the region. There are no demonstrations or protest actions as in the past and quite a number of Arab countries are today applauding the United States and other western countries for the role they are playing in the promotion of democratic values in the Arab world.

This is not to suggest a complete paradigm shift among Arabs. There is still a lot of unhappiness over the positions taken by the United States over the Palestinian issue and a clear bias towards Israel. Its inability or unwillingness to bring to an end over four decades of military occupation of Palestinian land has certainly not gone down well. 

Be that as it may, there is evidence of growing support for the interventionist role of the United States in the region, in particular Egypt and Libya, the latter on the throes of a civil war which is threatening to devour the country if allowed to continue.

The United States, no doubt mindful of the consequences of its involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, is proceeding with measured caution in its military involvement and has, in fact, taken a back seat in favour of a NATO-led operation. This approach has met with some criticism from Britain and France which is insisting on a greater military presence of the United States in the conflict.

Part of the problem has to do with the wording of the UN Resolution which was careful not to include regime change but emphasized the protection of civilians from attacks in the confrontation.

Limiting its operation to enforcing a no-fly zone and the protection of civilians has in a sense tied the hands of the United States and NATO forces since any direct involvement in the ground operations to remove Gadaffi could be seen as a departure from the UN mandate. The fact that some western countries such as Germany and Poland have expressed reservations about NATO’s involvement in the conflict has made the situation even more tenuous.

The above notwithstanding there are increasing pressure for Gaddafi to surrender office. A group of western countries and Arab states have openly called for him to step aside and pledged support to the opposition forces in their bid to remove the Gaddafi regime from power.

So far, Gadaffi is holding out strongly especially in the capital city of Tripoli. A peace plan brokered by the Organization of African States (OAS) failed to gain traction as the rebel forces roundly condemned the proposals which they said did not go far enough in terms of the immediate removal of Gaddafi from power.

It is interesting to see how the situation will play out. One thing is certain: the balance of power is shifting away from Gaddafi, thanks to the support, both overt and covert rendered by the United States and other western countries, in particular France and Britain. 

PULL QUOTE:
It is interesting to see how the situation will play out. One thing is certain: the balance of power is shifting away from Gaddafi, thanks to the support, both overt and covert rendered by the United States and other western countries, in particular France and Britain.

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