– Guyana and St Lucia (2011)
– Jamaica & Barbados (2012)
AGAINST THE odds, speculations persist of the likelihood of snap general elections during this year in Jamaica and Barbados. At this stage, it will be most surprising if they do occur. It seems realistic to expect that both of these Caribbean Community partner states will hold new parliamentary elections when constitutionally due — by September 2012, in the case of Jamaica; and in Barbados, not later than January 2013, if not in November 2012.
For those who may have missed the ‘election straw’ that he blew in the wind last week, they should perhaps take a hint from Prime Minister Bruce Golding’s announced deadline to remove from the nation’s law books, before next year’s  50th independence anniversary, the colonial-inherited Official Secrets Act.
Golding appears to have regained some lost personal confidence — especially over the ongoing Dudus extradition affair — and with his governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) having settled once bruising issues surrounding leadership with a revamped executive.
Consequently, he seems set to make good political use of Jamaica’s 50th freedom anniversary for his JLP’s bid to retain State power at new elections by the middle of 2012, if not in September when it is due.
Golding well knows, of course, that two can play the same game for State power. And the opposition People’s National Party (PNP), which held the reins of government for four consecutive terms before defeat came from the JLP in September 2007, knows this only too well.
Indeed, the PNP is quite aware of how very close it had come to retaining power in 2007 for a fifth consecutive five-year term when it was edged out by the JLP with a plurality of less than three per cent of valid popular votes and a shaky four-seat majority in the 60-member House of Representatives.
Even more than the JLP, the PNP has been quite militant during last year in early preparations for a new general election — including creating new internal leadership with specific strategising functions, and increasingly projecting a unity profile to counter negative perceptions that had multiplied in the wake of its loss of state power.

SLP/PPP optimism
ST. LUCIA: In contrast to speculations and doubts about snap national polls this year in Jamaica and Barbados, what is quite certain is that constitutionally due parliamentary elections will take place in 2011 in the Republic of Guyana (by August), and in St. Lucia not later than December.
The general expectations point to a change from Prime Minister Stephenson King’s incumbent United Workers Party (UWP) administration in Castries, and a return to the former two-term St Lucia Labour Party administration of former Prime Minister, Dr Kenny Anthony.
In contrast to the claimed lacklustre leadership provided the UWP by King — compared to what that offered to that of its founder-leader, the late Sir John Compton, the SLP’s charismatic  leader, Anthony, has been increasingly projecting confidence of a return to government.
He has already warned, in a statement, that the SLP would, under no circumstances, permit the government to extend its stay by three months for a new general election that is constitutionally due in the first week of December 2011.
Anthony’s confidence may be rooted in both the outcome of the results of the last general election and the growing positive reports the SLP claims to be receiving from campaign meetings and ‘strategic planning initiatives’.
At the December 2007 poll that the UWP won with an eleven-six majority under the leadership of Sir John (who passed away shortly after), the SLP’s popular votes had totalled 2,378 (or 3.02 per cent) less than what the UWP obtained.
Current indicators, as claimed by SLP insiders, suggest that all that’s now required for the party’s  return to power at a new general election “is a  two per cent swing,” which they feel confident of securing.

GUYANA: Retention of State power, for a fifth consecutive five-year term, is also expected in Georgetown for the incumbent People’s Progressive Party (PPP).
Like other contesting parties, the PPP is currently engaged in the internal politics of choosing a Presidential candidate for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections.
Its high-profile incumbent, Executive President, Bharrat Jagdeo, is constitutionally debarred from seeking a successive third term. But he is reported to be actively involved, behind the scenes, in helping to influence the party’s choice of presidential candidate from among five nominees already made public. 
Similarly involved too are the main opposition People’s National Congress (PNC), which held State power for some 28 years as a consequence of documented rigged elections that developed as a norm from under the party’s founder-leader, the late Forbes Burnham, to later his successor, the late Desmond Hoyte.
At the August 28, 2006 elections, the PPP had retained power by capturing 36 of the seats in the 65-member parliament, with 54.06 per cent of the valid votes cast.
The opposition PNC secured 22 seats with its 34 per cent of the votes; while the first-time elections contestant, Alliance for Change (AFC), whose top leadership comprise defected parliamentarians from both the PPP and PNC, managed to win five seats with 28,306 or 8.04 per cent of the votes.

2010 elections
2010 ELECTIONS: There were two changes in government from the quartet of parliamentary elections that took place last year in Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Haiti and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
In the first, Trinidad and Tobago, the incumbent People’s National Movement (PNM) was swept out of power on May 24 in a massive landslide 29-12 parliamentary victory by a few-months-old, five-party People’s Partnership coalition under the leadership of Kamla Persad-Bissessar, now the country’s first woman Prime Minister.
The PPG is currently engaged in reviewing a number of reported political missteps to prevent further undermining of its governance credibility.
The Republic of Suriname was to subsequently witness the surprising return to power, this time by free and fair elections, of former army coup leader, Desi Bouterse, with his New Front coalition winning a narrow parliamentary victory.
In August, he was overwhelmingly endorsed by parliament as President, and has been focusing, in the area of foreign relations, on building new bridges of friendship with neighbouring Guyana as well as Venezuela.
In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the incumbent two-term Unity Labour Party (ULP) of Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves was to retain power at the December 13 poll, but with a cliff-hanging one-seat majority that left the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP)’s leader, Arnhim Eustace, screaming to resort to “endless pressures” to force a new general election.
The results of  Haiti’s November presidential and parliamentary elections remained unresolved at the time of writing, as controversies persist over alleged vote-rigging and strong demands for the withdrawal of Jude Celestin, presidential candidate of the governing party of outgoing President Rene Preval, from a proposed three-way presidential run-off.
There were signals by last weekend that this withdrawal could occur to make way for originally third-placed candidate, Michel Martley, a popular Haitian-American musician, to assume the second spot behind front-runner Mirlande Manigat, a former First Lady.
Whatever the outcome, Haiti seems destined to remain in a state of permanent crisis, requiring bold new initiatives and firm commitment by the international community to fund the massive challenges of national reconstruction after the horrendous earthquake devastation of January 12, 2010.