…Information critical for crop insurance – Persaud

INDIAN weather expert, Dr. Rama Rao, yesterday presented a report covering work he did over the past year to develop numerical weather forecasting models to better equip the Hydromet Service in terms of making better and more accurate forecasting, for the benefit of farmers and other stakeholders.
The presentation was held at the Ministry of Agriculture under the auspices of Minister Robert Persaud.
The work of Dr. Rao was made possible through the assistance of the Indian Government through the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC). Rao was based at the National Weather Watch Centre at Timehri for a year.
According to the minister, the main goals of the project were to investigate monthly climatological circulation features over Guyana’s region based on many various data, including re-analysis data, sea surface temperature, outgoing long wave radiation and observed data analysis of selected stations; to look at drought and flood years, large scale monthly circulation features, anomalies of wind, rainfall patterns and linkage with El Nino/La Nina conditions for the year January 2010, as against January 2006. The project also investigated weather research and forecasting (WRF) validation and observation for a 3-day real time forecast, including the heavy rainfall prediction.
The minister said the present project provided an opportunity for operational forecasters of the Hydromet Service to further familiarise numerical weather predictions (NWP) model process and understand the importance of high-resolution numerical model forecast guidance products for various weather systems over the region.
“It also provided Dr. Rao an opportunity to work with operational forecasters of the Hydromet Service and also to understand various weather systems of the region,” Persaud said.
He said prior to Dr. Rao’s visit, forecasters utilised model products for Guyana of 100 km by 100 km resolution to generate forecasts. “Now forecasters within the ministry have access to higher resolution model products of 15 km by 15 km. This model can give a forecast up to three days,” he said.
The minister added that the project is a step towards the further strengthening of research and development in this discipline in Guyana, especially in a climate change environment where weather systems are much more dynamic.
The minister said he is quite sure that persons, having looked at Dr. Rao’s presentation, would realise the value of the intervention by the Indian government to the Hydromet Service.
“In Guyana, increasingly we have to bear in mind the weather and to predict weather so that we can plan and act appropriately. Within the Ministry of Agriculture, we are pursuing what we call climate-smart agriculture. But for us to really develop and pursue climate-smart agriculture, we have to understand climate, and in very basic terms we have to know the weather, not only when it occurs, but also what will happen in the future; and this new model that is being developed through Dr. Rao’s expertise and presence over the past year has certainly lifted the capacity of the Hydromet Service,” he said.
Persaud challenged the staff of the Hydromet Service to make the information accessible and readily understandable, with a view to eventually making it available to the general public.
“I want to make it clear that as part of the Government’s overall drive in terms of preparing and ensuring that we are adequately resourced to deal with the effects of climate change, a lot of emphasis has been placed on lifting the capabilities of the Hydromet Service,” he said.
He said that after the 2005 flood, Government made a request to the Government of India to have this expert, and “we are happy, although it took five years, that in January 2010, we were able to have the presence of the expert, whose skills and expertise we have not had in Guyana.”
Speaking of the training that the ministry did, the minister said after the 2005 floods, only one of the staff was a trained weather forecaster. He said that this situation has now changed to five and a further four will be added by the end of the year. “We were in a very vulnerable position, especially going through the 2005 floods. Very quickly we had to move in and accelerate programmes,” he said.
The minister said Guyana will continue to look to international agencies for support.
“Not only is this important area for forecasting for all the reasons I have given, [but also] for crop insurance. Our crop insurance will be weather-based or will be indexed according to weather patterns and weather events. This is what the insurance companies will use to determine whether or not a farmer [has a valid insurance claim],” the minister said.
“They will be able to determine with pinpoint accuracy [whether a claim is valid]. What we are doing here is investing in the nuts and bolts in terms of developing crop insurance. We are engaging in some discussions with the World Bank and the Canadians, and we are currently waiting on the Caribbean Risk Insurance Facility to include flood. Currently the Caribbean Risk Insurance Facility does not include flooding. Once that comes on stream, this is the type of information that is required. But when companies are coming in, this information is important,” he said.