– in a season of discontent
Analysis
TOMORROW is expected to be D-day for the political future of Barbados’ Opposition Leader, Mia Mottley, who is seeking to be the new chairman of the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) in order to position herself to lead the party into new general election.
But the 41-year-old lawyer, a tough political combatant, is instead facing the strong possibility of losing her current parliamentary post to former three-term Prime Minister, Owen Arthur, ahead of the party’s annual conference later this month when he could end up as the new chairman as well.
In this season of political apprehension and discontent in the Caribbean Community, the parliamentary parties of Barbados currently appear to be at the top of the list for public discussions on leadership.
The high public interest in the BLP’s leadership squabbles, referred to in local media as “a palace coup in the making,” is taking place amid rising speculations of a snap general election in 2011 as a consequence of the critical health condition of Prime Minister David Thompson. Officially, new general election is due by January 2012.
Both the current ruling Democratic Labour Party (DLP) and the opposition BLP have been doing comparatively well in concealing, for years, from the public their often bitter internal divisions in contrast to the frequent public washing of dirty political linens by some of their regional counterparts.
Not any more. Certainly not within recent years, as leadership squabbles, factionalism, personality clashes and, to a lesser extent, ideological differences, have combined to place both the ‘Dems’ and ‘Bees’ in the category of other major parties that frequently fail to keep their internal problems under the lid.
While the principal political parties of the Caribbean Community subscribe to multi-party parliamentary democracy, there is a distinction of difference between the leadership structure of the BLP and DLP and the overwhelming majority of other parties in the rest of CARICOM.

LEADERSHIP STRUCTURE

The distinction might help to explain the current ‘leadership tussle’ wracking the ‘Bees’, as well as the increasing sense of insecurity within the ‘Dems’ as a direct result of Prime Minister Thompson’s illness from pancreatic cancer and his recent cabinet reshuffle, announced last month, that continues to be a major talking point about dissension among stalwarts of the ruling party.
Unlike other CARICOM parliamentary parties (whose structure begins with an elected leader (in Jamaica, a President) and includes a chairman and general secretary), both the DLP and BLP have a leadership system that can accommodate a chairman, general secretary and a parliamentary leader viewed, incorrectly, as ‘party leader’, when not heading the government.
When in opposition, the parliamentary leader is chosen either by majority or unanimous vote of the elected parliamentarians.
In that position, he/she could be in readiness to lead the party into a general election, more comfortably so, if successful in occupying the chairmanship before a snap poll is called — as could well happen next year.
Such a development occurred in 1993 when Henry Forde (now Sir Henry) retired as Opposition Leader on grounds of ill health, and made way for Owen Arthur’s election and subsequent success in leading the ‘Bees’ to power at the 1994 snap poll that had resulted from the downfall of then Prime Minister, Erskine Sandiford’s DLP administration.
It is against this background that the current leadership squabbles in the BLP should be viewed as incumbent Opposition Leader Mottley strategises to unseat incumbent party chairman, George Payne at the forthcoming annual conference later this month, with the unmistakable objective of leadership readiness for a widely expected general election in 2011.
The critical hurdle Mottley has to first overcome is getting the majority vote from among the current nine BLP parliamentarians, with Arthur, her former leader and Prime Minister, currently holding the winning edge but yet to publicly confirm his participation in what threatens to be a fierce and potentially nasty duel at the party’s coming conference.
As of now, and contrary to some strange local media reportings, there has been no ‘aborted coups’, no ‘winner’ or ‘loser’, since a meeting at which both Mottley and Arthur were to have been vital participants is yet to take place.
Arrangements are being finalised to have this occur tomorrow, and both Arthur and Mottley (a former Deputy Prime Minister and Attorney General in Arthur’s administration) have been invited to be present.
For now, there are lots of political theatrics within the camp of the ‘Bees’, while the ‘Dems’ are striving to show a brave face as they cope with their own internal problems, including ‘leadership options’.

OTHER EXAMPLES

As readers would be aware, the two traditional dominant parties in Jamaica, as well as in Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana, are no strangers to the politics of internal divisions.
JAMAICA: In Jamaica, Opposition Leader and President of the People’s National Party, Portia Simpson-Miller, knows only too well what it means to ward off leadership challenges to survive to take the party into yet another general election.
The same could be said of the current embattled Prime Minister, Bruce Golding, who, having survived multiple intrigues to succeed Edward Seaga as leader of the Jamaica Labour Party, is desperately strategising to survive the politics associated with ‘Dudusism’ (to remain at the helm of party and government for another national election).
T&T: Across in Trinidad and Tobago, Kamla Persad-Bissessar had manoeuvred quite well to defeat last January the crafty founder-leader of the United National Congress (UNC), Basdeo Panday, to assume leadership of the party.
She went on to create political history in May by becoming her country’s first woman Prime Minister and leader of a coalition administration.
Known as a People’s Partnership Government (PPG), some of her ministers are already publicly revealing a surprising lack of understanding of the workings of cabinet-style government, and inability to manage internal dissent.
But, for all the political frailties being revealed, there is no real threat to the survival of the PPG, the dominant partner of which, the UNC, controls 22 of the coalition’s 29 seats in the 41-member House of Representatives.
GUYANA: The dominant parties in Guyana, on the other hand, are currently engaged in a contest to keep their supporters and the public in general guessing who will be their respective presidential candidate for next year’s general election, expected a year from now.
Currently, the main opposition People’s National Congress is sending out more mixed signals and confusion about its choice of a presidential candidate.
In the camp of the ruling PPP, the focus remains on a choice between two: The party’s General Secretary (Donald Ramotar) and the Speaker of the House (Ralph Ramkarran).
In the meanwhile, let’s see who emerges the ‘winner’ tomorrow in Mia Mottley’s gallant bid to remain parliamentary Opposition Leader and, by extension, prevent Owen Arthur from being elected later this month as the BLP’s new chairman, the post that’s pivotal for the party with a snap general election.
It’s difficult to imagine Arthur failing to be the choice. But in party politics, all things are possible.