THE findings of NACTA’s ongoing tracking opinion poll in three critical marginal seats (Tunapuna, St. Joseph and San Juan/Barataria) in the East-West corridor in Trinidad show very tight races between the ruling PNM and the opposition in two seats and the PNM ahead in one seat. The key to government formation may very well hinge on the outcome of these three crucial seats as well as four more seats in Trinidad and one in Tobago.  A party needs 21 seats to form the government. The PNM is defending 26 seats.  The UNC had 15 and is likely to hold all of them, NACTA projections. The UNC is likely to pick up a minimum four seats with 2 seats being very close in Trinidad and leaning PNM’s way.

Voters were interviewed to find out their views on issues as well as to determine support for the political parties for the May 24 snap election. NACTA interviewed 150 likely voters (approximately 42% each of Indians and Africans and 16% others) in each of the three corridor marginals over the last week. The poll also interviewed voters at random representing the demographics of the population in the neighboring Arouca Maloney and St. Augustine constituencies to determine the outcome of those seats. NACTA is not affiliated with any political grouping.

According to the findings of the survey, the PNM and UNC are at a dead heat in San Juan/Barataria (42%) and St. Joseph (43%) while the PNM is in a significant lead over the COP (coalition) by 47% to 41% in Tunapuna. The PNM leads two to one in Arouca/Maloney while the coalition leads in St. Augustine by 16%.

It is significant to note that although the PNM is in the lead in Tunapuna, it has not crossed the magical 50% mark to secure the seat. With just over three weeks remaining in the campaign, all three seats are still in play. The seats could go either way depending on any shift in support over the coming weeks.

The findings in Arouca/Maloney constituency show the incumbent, Alicia Hospedales, has slipped in support but still way ahead of the opposition. Several PNM supporters say Hospedales has not serviced them well and will not vote or vote for “Kamla”. In St. Augustine, the opposition candidate is struggling but is still ahead of the PNM. Several opposition supporters in St. Augustine say they will not vote or will vote for the PNM because their M.P, Vasant Bharath, was not selected to re-contest the seat.
If UNC supporters stay home, PNM is likely to retain office.