TRINIDAD’s Prime Minister, Patrick Manning, has dissolved parliament early although he has not announced a date for election as yet. As I penned in letters sent to SN and KN on Thursday, I expected Manning to dissolve the House on Friday after a debate on a non confidence motion filed against him and to announce May 17 as the likely date for election.
The Prime Minister is facing growing disenchantment with his policy undertakings and is badly hurt by the findings of an official Commission of Inquiry into the government owned construction company, Endecott, and its chairman Calder Hart, a Canadian who has been accused of improprieties.
Two weeks ago, Manning told his party activists to prepare themselves for early elections. Manning wants to clear his name against conjectures and allegations made against him. The PNM appears fully prepared for an election and its supporters are confident it will win again because the effects and resources of incumbency are on its side and the opposition is weak. The opposition, in the form of the UNC and its breakaway faction COP, are badly divided and not in good shape right after internal party elections. If the opposition factions were to come together, they have a good shot at winning government providing they can raise the resources for an electoral battle. But uniting the opposition is a hard battle as the key forces are unwilling to give up a little of their ego for an accommodation.
The PNM has the advantage of winning because of its superior organisation and because the money people are behind it. But party backers would have preferred to have elections much later instead of now because the party faces no threat from the opposition UNC.
Although Manning had faced a no confidence vote on Friday, he was under no threat of losing given his party 26-15 advantage in the numbers.  This was to be the second no confidence motion facing Manning in 15 months. The first one was piloted by then Chief Whip Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj who accused Hart of wrong doing. Manning appointed a commission of inquiry that issued its report last week exposing several wrong doings tied to Hart. And it is a result of that investigation that Manning wants to return to the electorate to decide his political fate. The Calder Hart affair has badly damaged the PNM with the party facing an uphill task in retaining its 26 seats.
The new leader of the UNC, Kamla Persad Bissessar, had hoped to embarrass Manning. She never expected to bring down Manning or even to have early elections. But Manning has outwitted the opposition by announcing he will dissolve parliament. He feels the advantage of timing is on his side against a divided opposition.
My thinking is Manning will not want to give the opposition much time to organize for an election especially that it is in disarray.  May 17 may very well be the date for the snap election or shortly thereafter.