-Manning, Panday on defensive as ‘boss-woman’ Kamla smells power
Analysis by Rickey Singh
WITH THE governing People’s National Movement in evident retreat, speculations are inevitably on the rise about its chances of retaining political power at a new general election — whenever called by its leader, Prime Minister Patrick Manning. The ‘time for change’ chant is beginning to grow in volume.
Those quite familiar with the history of the PNM, in and out of government, and more particularly under Manning’s leadership, have cynically remarked to me that “you do not have to be a seer” to confirm that it’s now a matter of time before a new government is elected.
That kind of optimism, however, poses a problem for this journalist, familiar as I am with multi-party electoral politics in the plural society that is Trinidad and Tobago, and the formidable reputation of the PNM’s organising machinery.
Its women’s arm has always been a crucial force in electoral politics, but this, I am told, may no longer be the case due to prevailing widespread complaints and disillusionment from within.
Further, there remains the factor of cynicism about the capacity of the opposition parties to spoil, by default, their chances for snatching victory from the PNM.
Often, it has resulted from failures to build a credible ‘unity foundation’, plus the tendency to wallow in ‘leadership’ opportunism and picong politics as they compete more against each other than with the PNM, which, as the incumbent, holds the advantages normally associated with State power.
A new general election is not constitutionally due before November 2012, but local government elections –already thrice postponed and not expected beyond October this year — could well be the litmus test for the PNM’s capacity for political survival and, at the same time, reveal the strength and vision of a united opposition to begin the process of ‘change in governance’.

Straws in the wind
The political straws in the wind carry uncomfortable messages for Prime Minister Manning, with a prevailing political climate so fundamentally different in 2010 to that of 2002 when the PNM returned to power, largely due to poor leadership judgment by then United National Congress leader and Prime Minister, Basdeo Panday.
In the current political scenario, the humiliating leadership defeat of Panday by the lawyer and woman rights advocate, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, has significantly energised more than the UNC’s traditional constituencies.
The ‘Kamla factor’ seems to have also inspired a new spirit for change in the body politic that extends to known traditional PNM strongholds (like Diego Martin).
Experienced professionals, with a traditional bent towards the PNM, no longer appear willing to ‘hold strain’ as the ruling party and its leader come under increasing pressure on ethical and other sensitive issues.
More recent examples would be the consequences of some bizarre and humiliating developments, examples being the role(s) of a controversial ‘seer-woman’ and her church; and the even more troubling fiasco involving Calder Hart, the Canadian-born Trinidadian citizen and power-wielder of the mighty Urban Development Corporation of Trinidad and Tobago (UDECOTT). He was  suddenly dismissed at the weekend by Prime Minister Manning, hitherto his strongest defender.
Once perceived to be an envied ‘untouchable’, Hart hastily resigned — under pressure — and departed, as did his equally controversial wife, leaving cabinet ministers and leading figures in the PNM alike to wonder what brought about his dramatic fall.
Not just some PNM ‘big wigs’ but the country in general were waiting — up to the time of writing late last week –on an explanation from the Prime Minister.
He had left for London to participate in a Commonwealth Day Observance Service at Westminster Abbey, while Hart was writing his resignation and leaving for Canada.
The word from informed PNM sources is that Manning had been told that the Party could no longer bear the ‘cross’ of Calder Hart’.

Other ‘spins’
Undoubtedly, there will be other ‘spins’ when, and after, the official statement comes from Mr. Manning on the tortuous ‘Hart affair’. Probably as soon as this weekend, though he may wait for the next meeting of parliament to use the privileges that highest forum afford.
But no one monitoring politics in Trinidad and Tobago can fail to recall the very unwavering, principled and robust stand taken against Hart as head of UDECOTT by the PNM’s Diego Martin West parliamentarian, Keith Rowley who suffered the loss of his cabinet position in the process.
Now as ‘boss-woman’ of the re-energised UNC, Persad-Bissessar prepares to file a motion of confidence against Manning — listing examples of poor governance affecting the country. Rowley has already declared that he was not at all surprised by this move.
“Kamla,” he remarked, “is the luckiest Opposition Leader in the world. The minute she takes over the UNC, all kinds of plums are falling in her lap… Of the 11 years I have spent in the Opposition, the grazing was never so good as it is now… (Tuesday’s Express).”
In  the circumstances, if Panday, the once reputed ‘Anancy’ politician, wishes to now personally write his inglorious epitaph, then in a curious way, Manning seems to be simultaneously, though differently, leading the PNM OUT of power amid rising speculations of Persad-Bissessar heading to be the country’s first woman Prime Minister.
Yet, as the saying goes, in politics, a week can be a pretty long time. And there are simply plenty, plenty more weeks ahead before Manning chooses to even signal, first, the date for the coming local government election.
There is now, however, the risk that the longer the delay in holding the local government poll could well be to the advantage not of the PNM but with the UNC under Kamla Persad-Bissessar. On  taking the oath as Opposition Leader, she had boldly proclaimed the occasion as “one step to government.” We shall see!