…66.9% more than originally calculated
Government, through the Bureau of Statistics, with external assistance and support, has completed the technical work required towards rebasing the country’s National Accounts framework, and as a result the National Accounts have been rebased to 2006 prices. Consequently, Guyana Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2010 has been rebased and estimated at $448.1B, or 66.9% higher than the previous estimates of $268.5B.
This information was part of the $142.8B, 2010 National Budget that was tabled in the National Assembly Monday by Minister of Finance, Dr Ashni Singh.
This is a significant change in the estimated GDP of the country and more vividly highlighted the prudent management of the economy by the Administration which has now seen the GDP of Guyana increasing from around $60B in 1992, when it assumed office, to the present total of $448.1B, which is over 600% higher than the 1992 figure.
Why rebase the National Accounts?
Minister Singh explained that one of the principal indicators of an economy’s performance, its growth rate, is measured through the instrument of the National Accounts which are prepared relative to a particular reference or base year. Prior to the current rebasing, the base year for Guyana’s National Accounts was 1988.
He went on to point out that as time advances further from the base year, there is an increased likelihood of ‘measuring with error’ the current period’s level of growth, particularly by underestimation, and likewise of ‘measuring with error’ other components of the National Accounts.
Among the reasons for this, Dr Singh stated, is the fact that the base year reflects the relative price and cost structures that obtain in that year, and these become progressively less relevant for calculating volumes of output and for estimating value added, particularly for those sectors whose output might not be directly observable or measurable. In addition, new products, technologies, and industries which did not exist at the time of the base year result in economic activity which, at best, is only captured in a very limited manner over time.
It is for such reasons and cognisant of the challenges that could arise from a base or reference year being retained for an excessive period of time, that the United Nations Statistics Division has recommended that the base year be reviewed and changed in a time frame of five to a maximum of 10 years for those countries which can afford to do so. In addition, from a regional perspective, the Standing Committee of Caribbean Statisticians has adopted a resolution urging all CARICOM Member States to revise their National Accounts series to a base year not earlier than year 2000, in order to effect closer harmonisation and more meaningful comparison across CARICOM economies, especially as the region moves towards a Single Market and Economy.
It is against this background that the Bureau of Statistics undertook to rebase the National Accounts. (GINA)
Guyana’s GDP now estimated at $448.1B for 2010
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