As we let the dust settle on Copenhagen, and the intense activity leading up to the conference abates in the short term, this may be a good time to focus a bit of discussion on Guyana’s alternate energy solution opportunities – wind energy in particular.

The entire global warming issue and the just concluded Copenhagen conference are in fact fallout from the world’s energy use, and more specifically from the developed world’s energy usage.

Energy is integral to development. Every developed economy in the world has been built on extensively disproportionate consumption of what seemed at the time to be abundant cheap energy – fossil fuels. It’s now known, however, that emissions from industrial magnitude consumption of fossil fuels have all the while been spawning a global climate change time bomb.

Ironically, not only is the brunt of effects of climate change being felt in the developing world, which has reaped little of the resultant technological and material bonanza; but as the metaphor goes, that the ladder to development which the developed countries climbed is now being kicked away from under developing nations.

If there is a bright side to this, it’s that this has increased the drive in Guyana to explore and tap domestic renewable energy sources. Guyana Energy Agency numbers show that while the volume of petroleum imports was roughly flat in 2007 compared to 2002 (perhaps due in part due to more use of indigenous resources like bagasse, more efficient generators and/or other causes) the cost of imported fuel increased 160% to more than 30% of GDP. For cost management, environmental and developmental reasons the move towards alternate energy solutions is on.

Solar is one of the energy solutions with possibilities. It is selectively deployed in small scale rural applications and in the city for traffic lights and water heaters. But while Guyana has the sunshine, the technology is still relatively expensive. Battery storage is relative bulky and still needs further development for large applications. But like other technologies this is likely to get better over time.

Guyana also has an estimated potential of more than 7,000 MW of hydro power, which is about 30 times the country’s installed generating capacity. The resources for this are mainly located in the hinterland and require heavy capital investment running into the hundreds of millions or billions to build facilities and transmission lines to centres of population. It is a very significant longer term resource.

Construction of the 154 MW Amaila Falls hydro project should be ongoing over the next few years. And the government has signed an MOU with the Trinidad firm Enman Services for a two year feasibility study for the $2 billion 800MW Turtruba hydro project. Guyana and Brazil have agreed to work jointly on infrastructure development. Brazil would finance the project and buy 90% of the electricity with 10% being available to Guyana.

A more immediate alternative for consideration in the coastal area buffeted by north-east trade winds is wind energy. Wind is clean and renewable and the cost of wind technology has been declining. According to work done by Mckinsey & Co. for the Guyana Government, wind power is the third cheapest energy source behind nuclear and geothermal in the lineup of power technologies that reduce CO2 emissions.

One megawatt-hour (MWh) of wind energy reduces CO2 emissions by roughly 1,200 pounds, so a single average size 1.67-MW turbine that produces over 5,000 MWh of electricity would reduce CO2 emissions by over 3,000 tons. (If 50% of Guyana’s electrical were replaced by wind power it would result in a 250,000 tons carbon reduction which would be valued in a carbon trading system at US$6.2 million assuming a $25/ton price). In addition unlike fossil fuel generation, operating costs are predictable once the initial capital outlays are provided for.

Wind is a reliable source of electrical energy around the world. For example, in Europe, Denmark gets over 20 percent of its electricity from wind, Germany gets 7 percent and Spain had periods in 2008 when wind energy provided over 40 percent of its electricity. And in the U.S., Minnesota and Iowa both get over 7 percent of their electricity from wind energy.Installed wind power is growing at a brisk clip of about 30% a year worldwide. China has the fastest growth of the big producers, more than doubling their capacity every year since 2005 to 20,500 MW in 2009. The fourth biggest producer of wind power behind the U.S., Germany and Spain, they are set to eclipse their originally target of 30,000 MW of installed power generation from renewable resources by 2020 and will soon overtake the U.S as the largest producer of wind power.In our own backyard, Brazil, already a significant hydro producer, is moving ahead with expansion plans for wind power in the northeast of the country having grown from 39 MW of installed power in 2005 to 239 MW in 2008.Like many other alternate energy sources, wind power is not a stand alone system. Any wind system has to be integrated alongside other power generating technologies with more consistent output. Careful load management is required as wind speed is variable and peak generating periods can be out of sync with peak consumption. Generally, a 20% wind power penetration to total capacity is considered a good mix that doesn’t raise too may technical challenges.

Comprehensive feasibility studies at 200 to 300 feet altitudes will determine the scale of the national potential. At higher altitudes there is less surface drag and the wind blows faster. This difference in wind speeds, or wind sheer, actually increases at night or when ground winds are stable as the wind at turbine heights do not decrease that much or may even increase.

A rough benchmark wind speed of 6 m/s or 13 MPH is considered suitable for wind farms. A few investigations have indicated that Guyana has average wind speeds in the range of 13 –18 MPH and generation factor of about .38.

Earlier work by DELTA Caribbean N.V for the construction of a 13.5MW wind farm at Hope Beach to be completed in 2010 had concluded that the site was suitable, although it’s unclear where the project now stands.

Site selection for wind power is critical not only from a wind perspective but also from the viewpoint of impact on the surrounding community. The huge 100+ ft blades cast shadows and/ or flickers depending on the angle of the sun. There is also the “swoosh” from the blades cutting through the air and a hum from the turbines. Placement of the turbines in from the shorelines away from residences, in agricultural pastures for example, is one way to deals with these issues. Given these considerations the foreshore recreational area of Hope, for example, would not be the ideal spot in terms of community impact.

Factors favouring wind power for Guyana are that it can be deployed in 6 to 12 months, its source is located close to population centres thus reducing transmission loss, and it requires less capital outlay than other systems (an installed cost of about US$1M per MW in North America). It is a good short-term strategy while Guyana works through longer term hydro solutions

Norway itself is placing its bets on wind power. The country has an objective of 40 TWhrs of renewable energy by 2020 -2025, one-third to come from off-shore wind.

Building on its off-shore oil and gas experience, Norway, the fifth largest oil exporter in the world and the county with the longest shoreline in Europe, commissioned the world’s first large-scale floating wind turbine in September 2009, a 2.3 MW Siemens built turbine which will be tested over the next two years at its location 7 miles out at sea.

Against this backdrop the $250 million bilateral agreement between Norway and Guyana seems to align nicely with the possibility for future wind power in Guyana as part of the model the two countries are seeking to provide to the world – if work proves the wind resources at Hope or elsewhere.

Though the timing and deployment of each of the technologies mentioned is different, they all have a place in a national strategy that reduces risk of narrow over-dependence on any one particular source and plays to the strengths of each technology.

The risks of reliance on external oil for the lion’s share of electrical generation have clearly been evident in crippling oil price swings. The ultimate thrust is for a movement away from the dominance of fossil fuels towards a bigger role for a cross-section of indigenous renewable sources with a mind towards supply risk management.

Dr. Leonard Nurse, Senior Lecturer – Integrated Coastal Area Management at UWI, and a member of the scientific team of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the 2007 Nobel Prize for its contribution to global climate change research, told this newspaper in an invited comment that this is the way to go:

“It is an excellent approach with much practical application and pragmatism – exactly what the entire region needs, not only Guyana. Apart from the environmental benefits this is the type of thing we need to do to improve our balance of payments and conserve much needed foreign exchange.”