Implications of climate change and agricultural output

The issue of climate change is high on the international agenda and this is natural as the phenomenon has serious long term consequences with respect to weather patterns, sea level rises etc-all of which have implications for agriculture and food security.

In fact we are already witnessing some very unusual weather patterns and unprecedented disastrous floods and heat waves. And this may only be the tip of the iceberg if the current trend continues.

According to the U.S Environmental Protection Agency the Earth’s climate has changed many times during the planet’s history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as volcanic eruptions, changes in the Earth’s orbit, and the amount of energy released from the Sun have affected the Earth’s climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution have also changed the composition of the atmosphere and therefore very likely are influencing the Earth’s climate.

The Agency further notes for over the past 200 years, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, and deforestation have caused the concentrations of heat-trapping “greenhouse gases” to increase significantly in our atmosphere. These gases prevent heat from escaping to space, somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse.

It also pointed out that if greenhouse gases continue to increase, climate models predict that the average temperature at the Earth’s surface could increase from 3.2 to 7.2ºF above 1990 levels by the end of this century. Scientists are certain that human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere, and that increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases will change the planet’s climate. But they are not sure by how much it will change, at what rate it will change, or what the exact effects will be.

Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. The forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm productivity. Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded:

“Recent studies indicate that increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and floods negatively affect crop yields and livestock beyond the impacts of mean climate change, creating the possibility for surprises, with impacts that are larger, and occurring earlier, than predicted using changes in mean variables alone. This is especially the case for subsistence sectors at low latitudes. Climate variability and change also modify the risks of fires, pest and pathogen outbreak, negatively affecting food, fibre and forestry.”

So the implications on agricultural output and food security are grave especially in the light of a fast growing global population, as such the issue of climate change is not a trivial one. On the contrary it is one of the toughest challenges of mankind, which perhaps his future existence is inextricably linked and therefore the need for a heightened awareness and implementation of mitigation measures is a most urgent one.

On this note the Ministry of Agriculture in collaboration with Guyana National Climate Change Unit Conservation International (CI) must be given full credit for the production of a farmers guide on climate change The 26 page booklet is entitled “Farmers Preparing for Climate Change in Guyana–A guide”,was prepared by the Guyana National Climate Change Unit with support from Conservation International (Guyana) and the Guyana National Climate Committee.

At the launching of the booklet Agriculture Minister Robert Persaud correctly and pertinently pointed out that based on the 2005 floods and subsequent events, it is evident that farmers lack basic knowledge of what to do in these circumstances.

“We recognise that we need to do much more training, much more awareness, but certainly in programmes and activities by our extension staff and other technical officers; we need to make climate preparedness and awareness a central part of these programmes,” he declared.

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